Thoughts and Issues:

- I must take a quick moment to wish every injured player on the Celtics (including recently cut Chris Wilcox) a wealth of health and happiness.  From a health perspective, this season has been disastrous, and not in a normal basketball sort of way.  Heart conditions and concussions are very serious issues and I’m glad the players discovered their problems when they did and received immediate medical help to lessen the risk of future problems.  From a fan’s perspective, I have never seen a collection of injuries of this magnitude affecting one team during one season.  I’m ashamed to even admit thinking about how these injuries have disrupted the potential final run of the Big-4.  These injuries go beyond basketball.  We can only wish these players and their families a lifetime of health.  Basketball is what it is, and will have to take a back seat.

- Ray Allen as the 6th man.

In my opinion, there is a heavy chance that fans and the media will blow Ray Allen’s recent comments out of proportion.  Ray has always been an honest guy, and he was simply being honest about how difficult it could be for the team to learn their new roles in a shortened amount of time.  More important, Ray has always been a team player, and by accepting coming off the bench he is once again proving his leadership and maturity.  Ray will do whatever he has to do to help this team win.  At this time, coming off the bench helps this team win.  It adds better balance to the starting lineup and the bench.  And, it’s important to note that Ray isn’t losing minutes or shot attempts.  His minutes will be up above 36mpg come playoff time and his shot attempts will likely increase as he logs additional time while Pierce is on the bench.  It’s a good move all around.  Also, more important than starting is finishing the game, and Ray will be on the court for the final minutes of every game.

Finally, I don’t see a move to 6th man affecting Ray’s decision to return next season, if Ainge is even considering bringing him back.  Ray’s abilities haven’t deteriorated, but he may be better suited to coming off the bench and leading the second unit.  If he returns, he and Doc will have to discuss what’s best for the team.  We all know Ray will have what’s best for the team at heart when he makes his decision.

- Playoffs.

The Celtics’ inspiring display of team basketball over the past few weeks has them in the lead for the Atlantic Division title and the 4th seed.  Securing the 4th seed would line the Celtics up for a first round battle with a team like the Magic or Hawks, two teams the Celtics can defeat with relative ease.

Personally, and I know almost everyone will disagree with me, I’d rather see the Celts somehow face the Heat or Bulls in Round 1, though I don’t want them to fall into the seventh seed as a result of poor play or injury.  I believe that facing the Bulls or Heat in the first round gives them the best shot at upsetting them [Personal pick = the Heat] and throwing the Eastern Conference playoffs into utter disarray.  The Celts will have fresher legs and the element of surprise in the first round, and knocking out the Heat or Bulls in the first round will weaken the entire bracket.  Attack the big game prey when you’re healthy and rested.  I’d hate to see the Celts get worn down in a draining seven-game series against a younger opponent before facing a Bulls or Heat squad that will probably trample their first-round opponent.  As a fan, I am not looking for another second round exit, no matter how valiant the effort.  I’m searching for a way for the Celtics to get back to the Finals, and I believe this madness is the way.  Knocking out either the Heat or Bulls would lead to a Round 2 matchup against a younger, less experienced team (i.e. Indiana, Philly) or a team the Celts have handled this season and in the past (i.e. Orlando, NYK, Atlanta).  I believe the Celts could expose a less experienced team in the second round because playoff basketball is different from regular season ball, and none of those four teams have had much recent playoff success.  The Conference Finals would then be a knock-down, drag-out fight between the old-school Celts and the remaining new powerhouse (Miami or Chicago).  This is all hypothetical of course, but I do believe it’s the team’s best route for getting to the Finals.

I am in no way complaining about the Celts’ recent terrific play or their climb into the 4th seed.  I just think their path is more difficult if they end up facing the Heat and Bulls in consecutive rounds.  This is the kind of nonsense we fans think about at this time of year.  Of course, all we want is for the Celts to be healthy and playing good team basketball come playoff time.  Seeding shouldn’t matter and I hope doesn’t.

- The Draft.

I’m going to throw out a few potential (and realistic) selections that the Celts should consider with their two first round picks.  Their picks will land somewhere between #17 and #25 depending on how the rest of the season plays out.  #17 is a good position to find a quality player in such a deep draft, and Danny has a way of turning lower first-round picks into solid contributors or trade bait (not every year, but more often than the average GM).

Let’s first look at the Celts’ hypothetical squad heading into the draft.  This is all speculation, but I believe they’ll re-sign both KG and Allen for between $8-$10 million per.  I’d love for Bass to pick up his option ($4.25 million), and though I believe he enjoys playing with this squad and Doc, I don’t believe he’ll pick up his ‘under market value’ option.  However, I believe it’s highly likely Ainge re-signs Bass to an extension because he’d be hard-pressed to find as talented a PF who fits in as well.  The rooks (incl. second-year Bradley) are still under contract*, and the Celts will pick up Stiemsma for another season (if KG has anything to say about it).  *Moore technically isn’t under contract next season because he was a second round pick, but I believe they’ll bring him back (team option).  I hesitate to include Jeff Green because no one knows how his health will be come the summer.  I wish him the best, but I’d lean toward him not being able to play.  Same goes for Chris Wilcox.  If they’re healthy, the Celts may bring both of them back (for the right money/fit), but it’s not something that can be predicted accurately.  So, my draft prospects are contingent on the following hypothetical 2013 roster:

PG: Rondo, Moore

SG: Allen, Bradley

SF: Pierce

PF: KG, Bass, JaJuan

C: Stiemsma

The team will have boat loads of money to spend on free agents, but all the top quality free agents have already re-signed with their teams (Kevin Love would have been awesome!), so Danny will have to either overspend on B-level talent or outbid other teams for RFAs (Hibbert, Lopez, Batum, George Hill, Gordon, Asik), or save the money for future deals.  The team has to spend 85% of the salary cap and are nowhere close to that number, so Danny will have to either sign or trade to spend some of his available money, but I’m unsure how he’ll do it.  The struggle will be to spend it wisely.  I’m leaning toward him going after Hibbert/Asik and Gordon/Batum, but even if he does, it won’t be until after the draft, so size and wing depth will still be focal points on draft night.  For those of you pining for D-Will, the only way the team gets Deron Williams is if Rondo is traded, and if Rondo is traded I don’t think Allen and KG will re-sign, and that is too complex a hypothetical scenario to approach at this time.  Prior to free agency, however, is the draft, which takes place immediately after the NBA Finals.  I’m sure Danny will have key free agents in mind this off-season, but since the draft comes so soon after the season, he’ll have to attack the draft prior to signing guys.  This is one reason Danny tends to draft the best available talent.

Now, let’s look at what the Celts can use: Youth, Size, Speed, Depth, Scoring, and Rebounding.  Is that all?  Yes, the Celts can use a lot of help in a lot of areas, but only in so much that Doc can and will utilize it.  Scoring is a need, but bringing in a gunner goes against everything this team stands for.  For those of you wondering how MarShon Brooks would be fairing on this season’s squad, the answer is that he’d be warming the bench between Pavlovic and Daniels.  For better or worse, Doc does not let young talent go in and take 13 shots per game.  Rebounding is a need, but if KG and Bass are brought back then it’s unlikely a rookie PF will have much of an impact.  The team tends to draft all-around competent talent with an eye toward the future.  The way I envision this off-season going down, the Celts will once again be drafting for the future and depth, as opposed to immediate impact and necessity.

The being said, here are the guys I think the Celts should consider.

Possible Draft Picks (Name, School, Year, Position, Size):

*Underclassmen may not declare!

**I’m not mentioning any International players, as they’re too difficult to project.  Who knows if they’ll even be available to come over and play.

***If the Celts have the #17 and #25 picks, then a host of talented players will already be drafted, and they will include a number of players you may want the Celts to draft.  Let’s be realistic and look at guys that are generally slotted to go between picks #17-25.

****In recent weeks, Meyers Leonard has skyrocketed up draft charts, and I cannot find a reputable mock draft that has him falling below #15.  I’m not including him because it’s unlikely a 7-footer with talent and upside will slide past the middle of the first round.  If he does, then the Celtics should obviously consider drafting him.

*****I’ve always been a big Syracuse Orange fan, but I have a rule: Don’t draft Syracuse players!  They never turn out well in the NBA.  I’m including Carmelo in that statement.  They don’t get enough exposure at man-to-man defense and defending the pick-and-roll (which is the NBA’s bread and butter), their offense usually revolves around perimeter chucking and iso plays, and they’re notoriously poor free throw shooters and rebounders.  Hakim Warrick was one of my all-time faves and I so badly wanted the Celts to draft him, but he turned out to be just a marginal player.  This rule is why I have no Syracuse players on this list, though I was very tempted to add Dion Waiters.

a) Terrence Jones (Kentucky, Soph., SF, 6’9” 240lbs.) – Watching Jones, you can see the unbelievable talent beneath the surface that has yet to be tapped.  He seemingly skates the surface of his talent, and in college he gets away with it.  The NBA will be a different story if he doesn’t start playing hard and smart consistently.  This is actually an issue with a lot of Wildcats, dating back to before Coach Calipari.  Cousins, Rondo, Magloire, Mercer, Anderson, Walker, Delk, McCarty…  Everything comes so easy for them in college that they expect it to be the same in the NBA.  It isn’t, and they’re slow learners.  Some eventually learn and become All Star-level contributors.  Some don’t learn and become busts with untapped potential.  Some, like Walker, skate by their entire career, living in the grey between All Star and bust – they may make a few All Star teams, but they’re always considered a letdown based on their high potential.  Jones has the potential to be an All Star and the inconsistency to be a bust.  Under Doc, with three HOF-ers around him, you hope for the former…much like Rondo.  Jones will be hard to pass up if he drops to #17, which, due to his inconsistency, many analysts believe will happen.

b) James McAdoo (UNC, Fresh., SF, 6’9” 225lbs.) – He is a frosh with huge potential and unrealized athleticism.  His game is fluid and he’s able to work inside and out.  He’s not big enough to man the post often, but he should be able to score at and defend the SF position.  He’s probably not ready for an immediate impact in the NBA – not on a team like the Celts – but he’d be a great piece to match with Rondo, Bradley, JaJuan, and Moore, when looking toward the future.  He has the potential to become the best player to come out of this draft, and therefore may be gone before the Celtics select.  *He may not declare for the draft, so this is moot if he stays in school (which I hope he does; they all should).

c) John Henson (UNC, Jun., PF, 6’10” 220lbs.) – He’s skinny, but he is an unbelievable athlete with tremendous upside.  I like that he stayed in school through his junior season to improve his overall game (and learn something too, I’m sure).  He needs to add weight to his frame, so maybe he and JaJuan can spend the summer working out together.

d) Terrence Ross (Washington, Soph., SG, 6’6” 195lbs.) – He’s a prototypical shooter/scorer who lacks experience.  He’s not yet a solid dribbler or iso player, but he can come off screens and hit open shots.  I’ve watched him play a few games and he has a bit of an IT factor when it comes to offense, but is less talented on the defensive side.  A team like the Celts (with KG around) will beat defense into him, but it will take time.  He’s a bigger, more talented E’Twaun Moore, and could be a good backup to Allen, but he won’t be ready to start as a rookie.  If Ross is drafted and Allen unsigned, the Celts will need to sign a free agent SG (Gordon?).  Ross is a couple of seasons away from being an everyday contributor.

e) Arnett Moultrie (MSU, Jun., PF, 6’10” 230lbs.) – Great size and build for a power forward.  Can step right in and bang with the big boys.  Not overly skilled offensively or defensively, but he has tremendous potential to be a solid NBA contributor, albeit probably not a game-changer.  Shoots 55% from the field, which is very efficient for a college player.  I like that he’s a junior with NBA-ready size.  Analysts are split on where he will land, with some projecting top-10 and others late-first.

f) Tyler Zeller (UNC, Sen., C, 6’11” 240lbs.) – My only concern with Zeller is that he has likely already reached his potential.  He’s a senior who plays in a pro system, which is a good thing; however, he likely won’t improve much when he enters the NBA.  He’s big, but can still be pushed around by college players, so true centers in the NBA may destroy him.  He’s quick, but not exceptionally quick, so NBA power forwards will likely go around him.  With this Zeller (and not his younger bro Cody), you’ll likely get what you see, which makes him a rather safe bet for a pick in the 20s.  But, when have we seen Danny play it safe?

g) Tony Mitchell (North Texas, Fresh., PF, 6’9” 220lbs.) – Reminds me quite a bit of Perkins.  He’s not as big and won’t be able to thrive at C, but he has the build and tenacity to really bring it every night in the post, especially on the defensive end.  Scouts say he’s one of the best defenders in the draft.  He’s also a terrific rebounder and shot blocker for his size.  He brings almost nothing on the offensive end unless it’s within three feet of the basket, but he will make himself a presence on defense.  Danny and Doc may take a flier on this 19-year-old, giving him an opportunity to learn from KG, much like Perkins was able to.

h) Perry Jones III (Baylor, Soph., PF, 6’11 235lbs.) – First of all, I love his length.  However, he’s not a C and is barely considered a PF.  Many consider him to be a long SF.  That’s fine because the Celts need depth at SF and increased team length.  His numbers across the board have dipped in his sophomore season, and despite an increase in shot attempts he is averaging fewer points (at an obviously lower FG%).  However, it is nice to see a sophomore average 13ppg and 8rpb, and you hope that under Doc he learns to assert himself and attack the basket.  One final caution: How does a near-7-footer average only 3 free throw attempts per game in college?  All Jones has to do is catch the ball on the block and attack the basket.  His attempts should be between 4-5 per game, minimum.  Not a good sign.  But, length is impossible to teach and his potential is sky high.

i) Doron Lamb (Kentucky, Soph., SG, 6’4” 200lbs.) – He’s a bulk scorer with a terrific jumper and confidence out his wazoo.  He’s a bit slight for a SG and doesn’t have the handle to be a PG, so he’s stuck between positions, but the Celts need scorers and this kid can score.  However, if he doesn’t up his tenacity on defense, he’ll never see the court under Doc.

j) Thomas Robinson (Kansas, Jun., PF, 6’8” 240lbs.) – If I were a GM in need of a PF, I would absolutely draft this kid.  He’s talented and intelligent.  He scores efficiently (17ppg, 52% FG) and rebounds (11rpg).  He’s a terrific team defender and a capable one-on-one defender.  He’s a bit undersized at PF, but makes up for it with instinct and a knack for being in the right place on offense and defense.  He’s a gamer.  He’d be better off going to a good team with a well-run organization because he’s not the type of player that can ‘save’ a Wizards or Hornets team, but he can be an excellent contributor to a competing team.  Though Ainge does tend to draft the best talent available, he is unlikely to draft Robinson if he retains KG, Bass, and JaJuan (big ifs all around).  *I think he played his way during March Madness into being a top-5 pick.

k) Draymond Green (Mich. St., Sen., PF, 6’6” 235lbs.) – Every team is going to overlook this guy and he is going to be NBA gold.  I screamed out DeJuan Blair’s name three years ago and every team until San Antonio at #37 abandoned logic and drafted someone else.  He was the steal of the draft.  Green could very well be the steal of this draft.  Green is tenacious on offense and defense, and has the ability to play inside and out.  His heart and desire to win surpass his size and speed limitations.  Though he’ll probably never develop into a star, he’s the kind of leader you want on your team.  With two picks in the first round, Ainge may be able to take a flier on a guy who may never develop into a top-3 scoring option for the Celts, but will undeniably win games with his hustle, intelligence, and grit.

l) Jeffery Taylor (Vanderbilt, Sen., SF, 6’7” 225lbs.) – Not the sexiest pick, but the kid did average double figures on 50% FG all four years at Vanderbilt.  He’s the type of player who likely already reached his ceiling, but could easily come in and begin contributing immediately.  He belongs on a team like the Celts, Spurs, Bulls, or Thunder; teams who know who they are and who they’re looking for.  Most years, he’d probably be a late-first, early-second round pick, but this year he’s being slotted in the late-teens.  It remains to be seen if Danny will select a solid contributor who doesn’t show much potential for game-changing growth.  He’d be a good choice with the Celtics’ second first-round pick, depending on who is available.

m) Festus Ezeli (Vanderbilt, Sen., C, 6’11” 255lbs.) – I watched Ezeli in the tourney and placed him on the list because I liked his hustle and tough play.  He’s not an exceptional athlete and will never be a force on offense, but he has traits the Celts can refine and utilize; size being one.

Wildcard) Austin Rivers – I don’t think he’ll drop to #17 because of the hype surrounding him, but I’m also hesitant to say the Celts should draft him if he did.  First, I think it would be extraordinarily awkward for Doc to coach his own son (on a professional level).  It is illogical to believe that family and the NBA would co-exist tranquilly for a long period of time.  I also think he’s overrated, being only a freshman and scoring at an inefficient rate.  A talented scorer?  Absolutely.  A well-rounded player?  Absolutely not.  IT factor?  Yes, but at what cost?  He is raw and needs to learn, and I fear the success of him learning under his Dad.  He supposedly has a brash, arrogant attitude, and the Celts already have a ‘supposedly’ brash, arrogant young player in the back court.  The combination of Rondo, Austin, and Doc may make for good headlines (and exciting highlights), but I don’t think it translates to consistently good basketball.  *I wrote this prior to the recent national debate on this subject, including the Boston Globe video with Ryan and Finn.  **I’ve seen a number of writers on this site saying that Ainge should consider trading one or two picks to move up and draft this kid.  All I can say is, “Are you all insane?”  Would anyone revere this kid if he wasn’t Doc’s son?  He’s not the top-rated SG on any draft scouts’ list, so why would the team trade a pick or two to get him?  I believe fans are currently obsessed with him because they believe a father-son duo would somehow breed magic, while it’s much more likely to breed failure.

Second Round Top-10:

*If I correctly understand the Keyon Dooling trade, the Celtics can potentially pick up a second second-round pick if the Bucks’ pick falls below #44.  Meaning if the Bucks make the playoffs, the Celts get a second pick in the second round, right around where their current pick sits.

**Celts’ own pick should be around #47.

***I have NO IDEA what Doc would do with 4 rookies and 2 second-year players.

****The second round has recently turned into the place where teams grab four-year college players who have likely reached their potential but can contribute due to high basketball iq and hustle.  You know, solid contributors who could add quality depth to your team, but who most likely won’t develop into game-changers.  Most of the ‘high potential’ guys go in the first round – that’s the boom or bust mentality.  The past few years the Celts have selected in the second round seniors E’Twaun Moore, Luke Harangody, and Ryan Gomes; 22-year-old Semih Erden; and junior Gabe Pruitt.  Danny may stick with that mold with one of the picks and shatter it entirely with the other.

a) Jae Crowder (Marquette, Sen., SF, 6’6” 235lbs.) – Marquette players certainly do bust their tail, but Crowder lacks elite athleticism and he’s not a superior talent on offense or defense.  Size may be more of a necessity, but, if the Celts are prepared to take a flier on a hard-playing gamer who will hustle every night, then Crowder may be their guy.

b) Henry Sims (Georgetown, Sen., C, 6’10” 255lbs.) – Sims may be the perfect second-round pick for the size-starved Celtics.  Not many four-year big men slide to the second round, but because of the depth of this year’s draft, and Sims’ sometimes passive play, he may very well fall to the Celtics.  The Celtics never ask too much of their centers, so Sims will not need to be explosive offensively.  He’ll need to be sound offensively and tenacious (and intelligent) defensively.  I believe he can be those things.  One final note: Sims averages the highest assist rate per 40 minutes of any big man in the country.  That interior passing will fit in well with the Celtics’ game plan.

c) Tyshawn Taylor (Kansas, Sen., PG, 6’3” 180lbs.) – If Danny and Doc believe that Rondo is not the long-term answer and Bradley is not a natural PG, then they may go ahead and draft a seasoned PG with upside.  Taylor is that PG.  He has size and speed, and is talented enough to run the show, space the floor, and play solid defense.  He’d be a good pickup in the second round.

d) Darius Miller (Kentucky, Sen., SF, 6’7” 230lbs.) – He has a NBA-ready body and a skill set that is solid, if unspectacular.  He will not develop into a game-changer and isn’t likely ever to become a starter, but he could develop into a solid contributor off the bench.  Due to his body and four-year experience, he’s likely ready to be able to take the court as a rookie.

e) C.J. Leslie (N.C. State, Soph., SF, 6’9” 210lbs.) – A few weeks ago, Leslie was pegged to be available in the second round.  After N.C. State’s run to the Sweet Sixteen, Leslie may be elevated to a first-round pick.  If he is available to the Celts in the second round, it may be foolish for them to bypass him.  Leslie is explosive and quick.  He has become more efficient offensively and is a willing contributor on defense.  He is young and has a lot to learn, but he is the type of the talent the Celtics need to look at in this draft.

f) Jeff Withey (Kansas, Jun., C, 7’0” 235lbs.) – Playing big minutes for the first time in his college career, Withey is highly efficient on offense (54% FG, 79% FT) and intelligent on defense.  Hey, he’s 7-feet tall and you can’t teach size.

g) Robert Sacre (Gonzaga, Sen., C, 6’11” 260lbs.) – He’s a 3-year starter for a big-time program who is known for being an old-school center.  Not known for explosive athleticism, he is a smart defender and shot blocker, and is often called the ‘best free throw-shooting big man in college’ (80%).

h) Tim Hardaway Jr. (Michigan, Soph., SG, 6’5” 185lbs.) – Considered a ‘star in the making’ by many analysts.  He’s a poor three-point shooter and needs to improve his efficiency across the board, but he plays with exceptional energy and he’s intelligent.  He’d be a worthwhile project if drafted in the second round.

i) Trey Burke (Michigan, Fresh. PG, 6’0” 180lbs.) – A PG may not be a necessity, but Ainge often takes the best talent available, and Burke may be that come pick #47.  For a freshman who handles the ball constantly, Burke is efficient at scoring and dishing, averaging 14+ppg and 2-to-1 in assist-to-turnover.  Taking a flier on him and having him learn under Doc and Rondo would be acceptable, though it would leave the Celts with a tiny backcourt.

j) Andrew Nicholson (St. Bonaventure, Sen., PF, 6’9” 220lbs.) – The kid has a NBA-ready body and mind, but a lack of game-changing ability.  He’s undersized for a PF, but his instinct is terrific.  If given the chance, he could become a contributor for a contending team.  But, if the Celts go hard after size, he’s not lengthy enough to warrant a flier.

k) Yancy Gates (Cincinnati, Sen., PF, 6’9” 260lbs.) – He has the body and hands to be a NBA player, but lacks a polished offensive game and can become befuddled during the course of a game.  He enjoys shooting the 16-footer (ala KG), but only hits it at a 30% clip.  Defensively he’s talented and has shown the ability to learn on his feet.  Despite his limitations, he still has good upside and would be a nice body to toss in the post for a few minutes.

The final ten games find the team splitting their time between Boston and other cities, with several matchups against potential playoff opponents.  Once again, it’s not an easy group of games, with two back-to-backs and their only back-to-back-to-back.  It’s actually a cruel finish to the season, but it should get the Celtics playing their best ball together, unless it completely wipes them out physically.  Doc is going to have to manage minutes over the next few weeks, sacrificing wins if necessary.  All that matters is that the team is playing well and staying healthy.

I hope my next update finds them with a record of…  Heck, I don’t care what their final record is.  I’m already looking forward to the playoffs.  All I hope for now is a healthy squad.  Go Celtics!

MANAGER:

After last season, I had a list of managerial candidates I believed the Sox should consider.  My first choice was to bring back Francona, and I had my reasons.  He’ll go on to coaching success somewhere else, I’m sure.  The Sox thought it was time to move on, and I’ll accept that.  Bobby Valentine was 11th on my list of 11 possible candidates, behind the likes of long-shots like Joe Maddon and available guys like Dave Sveum.  I gave Valentine a 15% chance of being selected.  Now, it’s 100%.  He’s the new manager.  I’m fine with that.  I think he’ll bring a different attitude (and accountability) to the clubhouse, and that’s ok because there are very few veterans remaining from the 2004 and 2007 Championship teams.  These Red Sox can use a new attitude and a new leader.  I am completely onboard with the Valentine-inspired return to fundamentals.  When a team as talented as last season’s Sox underperforms in such a grotesque manner (the players declared the 7-20 September record was due to bad baseball), a return to fundamentals is a great place to begin the rebuilding process – bunting, fielding grounders, pitchers covering first, etc.  These are facets of the game that veterans sometimes overlook and that can lead piece by piece to epic collapses.  Something ran amiss last season, and my hope is that Valentine can right the ship and get this team playing good, solid baseball once again.  If the team as a whole plays good ball they’ll improve their chances of being a factor come September.

25-MAN ROSTER:

First, I’d like to congratulate Tim Wakefield and Jason Varitek on their successful careers.  Both are first-class individuals and first-rate ballplayers.  Each will forever be a member of the 25.  I hope their lives after baseball are as fulfilling as their playing careers.  For my money, I expect to see Varitek back real soon as an assistant coach of some sort.

Let’s look at the roster position-by-position:

1B
- Adrian Gonzalez – Adrian is the team’s best pickup since Curt Schilling in 2004.  He was well worth the value of the pieces traded away.  Adrian is as steady as one can get as a hitter and fielder, and he should put up impressive numbers for the remainder of his contract.  Each year, he should be a Top-10 MVP candidate.  I look for him to put up even better numbers this season than last (healthy shoulder, more comfortable), and I look for him to step up as a leader in the clubhouse.

2B
- Dustin Pedrioa – Lil’ ol’ Pedey is as steady as they come.  He’s a Top-20 positional player in baseball and a leader for this team.  I expect him to have another solid season.

3B
- Kevin Youkilis – Youk is beloved by Red Sox faithful, but there is no hiding that injuries have partially derailed his effectiveness in the field and at the plate.  He probably won’t top 125 games at third base, and with Ortiz at DH there isn’t a feasible option to bat him on days off.  But, when Youk is healthy and playing he is one of the top third basemen in the AL.  I don’t think he’ll have .850 OPS consistency or 20 home run power, but he plays hard every game and forces the opposing pitcher to work.  I like that.  His numbers will drop, but he’ll still be effective this season.  Will Middlebrooks, the heir apparent to third base, is not ready to step in and play every day.  Give Middlebrooks another year in AAA with maybe a late-season call-up.  Next year, it may be an entirely different story.

SS
- Mike Aviles / Nick Punto – Valentine decided on Aviles, and I, as a fan, am open to giving him a chance.  He’s marginally talented and he seems to have a real lively enjoyment for the game.  After trading Scutaro away to clear cap space (which is all they did in that trade) and trading oft-injured Jed Lowrie to Houston for a reliever (possible closer), the team had few clear options.  Aviles may not be in the top-8 for AL SS, but he should adequately contribute to a lineup that features a number of All Stars.  His defense, on the other hand, is suspect, so he will cough up some innings to Nick Punto and eventual call-up Jose Iglesias.  Overall, the position is suspect, but I see no reason to believe it will sink the team entirely.  *It seems Lowrie may miss Opening Day in Houston due to another injury.  Perhaps trading him was the correct call.

LF
*- Carl Crawford – I was against the Crawford signing from the get-go.  I believed then and now that he was a vanity grab by Theo Epstein and was an unnecessary component to an outfield that already had Ellsbury and a lineup that had hitters in the first three slots.  He had a year more horrible than anyone could have imagined, almost like he forgot how to hit and catch the ball, and this year begins with him on the DL rehabbing a wrist surgery.  What can we expect from him as the season progresses?  Well, it will take him to time catch up once he returns from the DL, but I’m optimistic for the second half of the season.  Crawford, regardless of last year’s doldrums and his inevitable breakdown after years playing on Tampa’s fake field, is still a multi-talented All Star surrounded by other All Stars.  He’ll probably never become the game-changer Theo was hoping for (and he’ll never play up to his contract), but he should be able to carry his own as a LF-er and bottom-of-the-order hitter.  Ignoring his enormous salary, that is all we can ask from him because no team would trade for him. *Opening Day fill-in: Ryan Sweeney or Darnell McDonald.

CF
- Jacoby Ellsbury – I expect Ellsbury to regress slightly, but still put up very good numbers on both sides of the ball.  However, does anyone here expect that at some point this season his contract status won’t affect the team and his on-field play?  I know there is another year of arbitration available, but the Sox either have to lock him up for the long-term or risk him ultimately walking after the 2013 season.  If they don’t lock him up in the next 18 months, he’s certainly walking.  This will hang over the team from now until either one of those events happens.  I’m pessimistic about contract issues affecting team chemistry.  Contract issues in baseball aren’t as bad as in basketball, but it’s getting closer each year and I’m certain Scott Boras won’t make it any better.

RF
- Cody Ross / Ryan Sweeney / Darnell McDonald – Another platoon?  Yeah.  For a team spending so much money (3rd in baseball) they certainly have holes.  If platoons were such a great idea, don’t you think winning teams would utilize the strategy more often?  A righty/lefty platoon is fine here or there, but to have random platoons in the infield and outfield is cause for concern, and possible disaster.  My hope is that Ryan Kalish becomes fully healthy and plays his way into the full-time role, which is highly unlikely for this season.  Ross has had a nice spring session and will probably earn the full-time role at some point this season, with Sweeney and McDonald backing up all three outfield positions.  I like Ross.  He was a fantastic pickup.  He’s the kind of guy the team could have used the past few seasons.  I hope he stays healthy enough to help the team throughout the entire season.

C
- Jarrod Saltalamacchia / Kelly Shoppach – They certainly didn’t bring Salty back to be a backup, so I’ll consider him the opening day starter.  However, Salty has never played in more than 103 games in a season, so Shoppach (known for defense) and Lavarnway (known for offense) will both be given opportunities during the season to prove their worth.  Here’s hoping no one’s feelings are hurt by too many games off.  Basically, the catcher position is another platoon, with a glorified starter in Salty.  *Lavarnway will apparently begin the season in AAA, which will give him at-bats and additional time to shore up his defensive shortcomings.  He’ll be brought up at some point.

DH
- David Ortiz – Big Papi is back and should be relatively happy with his new 1-year contract.  From the organization’s perspective, a 1-year deal will likely keep Ortiz focused and on his game.  The team needs another big season from Big Papi and I, for one, believe he’ll deliver.  Anything around a .290 BA, .890 OPS, and 30 home runs will be extremely helpful.

SP
#1 – Jon Lester – Still the #1 guy in the rotation, though I believe he has something to prove to both teammates and fans.  We’ve been talking every year about how Lester should be a Cy Young candidate, but he never is.  He always seems to have a month where he performs well below-average.  This year, with a thin rotation, a month of poor pitching from Lester could cost this team a playoff spot.  Get ready to carry the load, Lester, as the team is going to need you to approach, if not surpass, 20 wins.

#2 – Josh Beckett – A great #2 option, but he also has something to prove after last season’s debacle, beer and chicken notwithstanding.  The team will need 15+ wins from him.  If he stays focused and healthy he can surpass 15 wins.

#3 – Clay Buchholz – All fans better hope Buccholz returns healthy from last year’s back surgery.  The back is not an area in which a pitcher wants problems.  If any small change to Buchholz’s delivery or follow-through is created by back issues, then he will not be the same successful pitcher he once was.  If he comes back fully healthy, he should be worth 15-17 wins.

#4 – Felix Doubront – Recently appointed the #4 starter, we all hope he’s up to the challenge.  He has very little big league experience, so it’s near impossible to hypothesize how he’ll do.  He’s put up fine numbers in the minors, during spring training, and in cleanup work as a late-season call-up, but my main concern is this – he has never thrown more than 129 innings in a single season.  Starting pitchers are expected to throw more than 129 innings.  He’ll have to be on an innings limit, and if he isn’t he’ll hit his physical wall sometime during the summer.  Not a good thought.

#5 – Daniel Bard – Count me as one who doesn’t believe this will work.  I don’t believe Bard has the mentality or ‘stuff’ to be a successful starter and his minor league starter numbers don’t bode well for success (though, admittedly, those numbers are years-removed from today).  The problem I see (same as Doubront) is that even if Bard is successful as a starter this year he’s going to be limited by an overall innings count, eliminating him as a starter come late-summer.  He’s never thrown more than 77 innings in a season.  Any quality starting pitcher needs to at least reach 150.  That is the key reason I’m upset with the team for not strongly pursuing starting pitchers this off-season.  The best Bard can be is a first-half success.

RP
- Alfredo Aceves – A possible god-send, again, for this team.  Who knows if he can duplicate last year’s success, but what I do know is that the team had to resign him and is going to need him to come close to last year’s success.  He is a, no the, key component to this bullpen.  I wouldn’t be surprised, however, if he finds himself in a starting role by year’s end, with Bard or Doubront moving back to the bullpen.

- Vincente Padilla – There is no guarantee he’ll make the major league roster and stay with the team, but if he does he’ll be used in the bullpen, much in the same way Aceves is used.  Who knows how short the leashes will be on Doubront and Bard, and Aceves and Padilla may find themselves in the starting rotation before long.  I believe Padilla can help this team, especially if his innings are limited and he stays healthy.

- Matt Albers / Franklin Morales / Michael Bowden / Andrew Miller – Bullpen-by-committee.  Valentine is somewhat famous for his unique utilization of his bullpen arms.  It will be interesting to see how he uses these four guys (2 lefties, 2 righties).  They will all need to step up and perform consistently for the team to have any shot at the post-season.

*- Bobby Jenks – Beginning season on DL, and most likely staying there for the remainder of his career.

*- Daisuke Matsuzaka – Once again, Dice-K will play the role of wild card in the Sox’s organization.  When (if) he returns mid-season, he’ll be prepped in the bullpen.  I doubt he has anything left in his tank that can help the team, but he is a wild card.

SET-UP
- Mark Melancon – A set-up man with a closer’s mentality and experience?  Didn’t the Sox try this with Bobby Jenks?  I believe Melancon is in a much better position to succeed than Jenks was, if only for the fact that he hasn’t suffered from massive obesity.  If he can lock down the 8th inning and hand the ball to a healthy Bailey it will immensely help this team.

CL
- Andrew Bailey – I am fine with Bailey taking over for the departed Papelbon.  Bailey comes at a healthy discount and is a talented, relatively young closer.  His numbers should approach an average of what Paps put up during his tenure.  Of course, preface everything I wrote with the dreaded ‘if healthy’.  *He may already have injured his thumb.

*The roster may change a bit during the first few weeks due to injuries (Crawford/Bailey).  It’s very likely Lavarnway, Aaron Cook, Junichi Tazawa and others (Ryan Kalish, Jose Iglesias) will get called up at some point this season, perhaps early on.  Dice-K should return mid-season, which is why I have him listed above.

ANALYSIS:

In my humble opinion, this is the Sox’s worst opening day squad since 2009 (or possibly 2003 or 2001).  Yes, there is undeniable talent at certain positions (1B, 2B, CF, top of the rotation), but there are many questionable fill-ins at important positions and a terrifying lack of depth in the starting rotation.  The starting rotation is what scares me the most.  Without proven, capable pitchers at the four and five spots, the pressure is ratcheted up for the top three to win all their games.  Buchholz is coming off a serious injury while Lester and Beckett have to atone for last season’s (perceived) mistakes (and Lester has to avoid his yearly month-long slumber).  Moving Doubront and Bard to the rotation (and possibly promoting Aceves during the season) weakens the overall staff.  I cannot believe the Sox didn’t work harder to bring in another capable starter.  They scoured the scrap heap and not one guy stuck (though Padilla seems to have a spot in the bullpen).  Going into the season with two question marks in the starting rotation is terrifying.  An injury to one of the top-3 starters would be disastrous and may force the team into a panic trade, potentially resulting in Youk (age/contract) or Ellsbury (talent/contract) being traded for a front-line starter.  Now, there will be unbridled optimists who will say that everything will work out and guys will step up and the Sox will bring in guys (Oswalt?) before the season is through, yada, yada, yada…  That’s all well and good, but let’s look at this without the blinders on.  Every year it is said again and again, “You can never have too much starting pitching.”  Well, the Sox are two players short of a full rotation.  They have three starting pitchers and a grab bag of miscellaneous parts.  With the way the AL is built this year there is no room for error (or a prolonged learning curve for Doubront and Bard), and the Sox are starting off behind the eight ball.

With their entire pitching staff in relative disarray, the Red Sox are not sitting pretty.  A lot will have to break their way for this season not to be an unmitigated disaster.  Understanding that it’s a long season and predicting anything at this time is beyond illogical, I don’t believe the Sox will make the playoffs this season.  They’re going to finish behind both the Yankees (improved staff, and they always seem to finish with 95+ wins) and Rays (improved overall team, upside is dangerously high), and they’ll find themselves fighting for third place with an increasingly improved Toronto club (90+ wins is possible).  They’ll also find themselves fighting for that new final wild card spot against teams like the Indians, White Sox, and Rangers (I see the Yankees, Tigers, and Angels winning their respective Divisions).  With the way the new playoff system is orchestrated (two wild card teams face off in a one game playoff to advance to the ALDS), I see the Sox facing off against the Rays in a one-game playoff.  I see the Sox losing.  But, it’s a long season and anything can happen.

The psyche of this team is on the precipice of fragility after last season’s meltdown and an off-season of change.  We’ll learn a lot about the character of not only the players but the coaches and front office staff if this team hits an early-season skid.  Is Bobby V. the guy you want leading a fragile team?  He throws stones in his own glass house.  He may rub a few long-tenured players the wrong way.  Then again, guys may respond terrifically to Valentine’s prodding and Bobby V. may lead the team away from disaster and toward the promised land.

I cannot deny that I fear the past two seasons have been the awakening dawn of another era of 1990s Red Sox baseball, when the team topped 88 wins only twice and made the playoffs only four times (w/o truly ever sniffing a World Series).  They’re a 90-win team, don’t get me wrong, but 90 wins no longer guarantees a playoff spot.  They have vastly overpaid the wrong free agents and traded away a majority of their talented youngsters.  They have adopted the old Yankees formula which rarely worked.  There is talent in the Red Sox clubhouse, but there is also inconsistency and a lack of organizational depth, especially in the pitching staff.  I can see this season going either way, but it’s a more logical prognostication that the team will falter a bit and miss the playoffs in a very tough American League.

Their best chance to make the playoffs and make a run is to fight and claw and scrap for everything all season long.  It’ll take a lot of grit and character to do so, and luckily there are high-grit (Youk) and high-character (Pedey) guys on this team to lead the charge.  If there is any sense of entitlement left with any of these guys after last season then the team is doomed.  This season needs to be a ‘rise of the underdogs’ season for the Sox.

Go Sox!

Thoughts and Issues:

- So, Danny Ainge decided to do nothing at the trade deadline.  Why?

1) Honestly, he was forced into doing nothing by the lack of a viable trade option.  No GM offered Danny a game-changing talent in return for one of his stars.  If someone had, I’m certain Danny would have traded any of the Big-4 without hesitation.  Despite the criticism Ainge takes from myself and others, he’s actually quite shrewd, and he always has a Plan A, Plan B, Plan C…seemingly endless plans.  His one constant goal is to make the Boston Celtics better.  That being said, if he had traded Pierce, KG, or Allen, I would have ignored the remainder of the season.  [I don’t add Rondo into that group because Ainge’s best shot at getting a game-changing talent in return was trading Rondo.  And, I still don’t believe Rondo is the leader for this team in the future.]

2) The Celts already own two 1st-round draft picks.  Danny may have been able to grab another 1st-rounder as part of a deal, but it likely would have been from a contending team in need of a PG (Rondo) or a veteran presence (Big-3), and therefore the pick would have been lower than the two the Celts already own.  There is no need to stockpile picks in the late-20s.

3) Allen’s $10 million and KG’s $20+ million come off the books at the end of the season, as do the contracts of O’Neal, Wilcox, Dooling, Pietrus, and potentially Bass.  If Ainge wants to he can amnesty Pierce’s remaining contract.  Basically, Ainge can begin this off-season with a nearly clean slate.  He can even trade Rondo this off-season, if he’s offered a nice deal.  Ainge had no need to trade his players when he wasn’t offered what he wanted.

4) All these points lead to one inevitable truth: Ainge knows the Celtics aren’t winning the championship this season.  If he thought that a trade could have brought in a player who made this season’s team better (without killing the long-term), he would have.  He used that exact mindset last season when trading Perk for a young talent at the backup 4/5 position.  It backfired because Ainge forgot about a little thing called team chemistry; however, Ainge thought the team had a chance to win it all, so he went all-in.  He could have let Perk walk at the end of the season – we all know he wasn’t going to pay him – but instead he traded him for what he thought was a potential game-changer (Green) who improved that year’s squad.  This season, he knows the team isn’t going to win, so he was looking long-term (young talent + draft picks), and he didn’t receive any offers that validated trading Rondo for a different building block or one of the Big-3 for young talent and/or more cap space.

It’s nice to see that he didn’t panic-trade a member of the core in order to grab a young body or two.  There were absolutely no bigs worth trading for and the young guard crop is constantly shifting.  I’m excited to watch the Big-4 give it one final go this spring.  I’m not optimistic about their chances, but I’m excited to see them go down swinging.  Knocking off the Heat in any round of the playoffs would make me the happiest I’ve been since they won it all in 2008.

- Free Agent Big Men.

The Celts obviously need size, but with only 22 games remaining this season, and precious little practice time, what can the team realistically expect from a free agent pick-up (i.e. stranger)?  In my opinion, very little.  Yes, the team needs height and rebounding.  But, consider these facts:

1) The options are slim.  Right now, the Celts can pick up a season-long free agent like Rasheed Wallace, a buy-out player like Ronny Turiaf, or a D-Leaguer like Chris Johnson.  Or, me, right off the street.  I’ll take half of what they paid Troy Murphy last season.  In all seriousness, the options are slim.

2) The Celts are not considered a top contender like the Heat, who also happen to need a big.  The Celts may be a last resort for many of these guys.  If the option is there, available bigs will sign with teams higher up the NBA ladder.  And, don’t think players will overlook what happened with Carlos Arroyo and Troy Murphy last season.  Those guys came in expecting to play minutes and they ended up riding the pine.  See #4 below.  Players like to get paid, but they also like to play.

3) The Celts run very specific packages on offense and defense.  Incoming players will have very specific, yet highly detailed, roles.  Any player, especially a big man, will need to learn fast on their feet in order to contribute.  Yes, the team wants rebounding, but they don’t want their big in position to rebound if it means being out of position within the system.  A lack of size contributes to their rebounding woes, but let’s be honest, so does Doc’s system (the past three seasons they’ve finished 29th, 29th, and 30th in the league in total rebounding – that’s more than a lack of size).  It usually takes a big half a season to learn the mechanisms of the Celts’ help defense, so why should we think Turiaf can come in and contribute immediately?  Chris Johnson has a leg up by already knowing the system, though he lacks in talent compared to guys already in the league (there is a reason he has a hard time sticking with a pro team).

4) Hand-in-hand with the point above, Doc doesn’t trust new players.  He doesn’t trust them to contribute to the system he has in place.  Players who cannot conform to the system do not play, no matter how tall they are.  Troy Murphy is 6’11” and was one season removed from averaging a double-double, and he couldn’t earn anything other than garbage-time minutes.

5) Buy-out bigs have to clear waivers, which means teams have to pass on them.  This is the least of the Celtics’ concerns, but don’t assume that Miami will pass on a potential game-changing big if he happens to reach waivers.  It could push them over the top.

Seeing all these obstacles in retaining the services of a contributing big, who do I think the Celtics will eventually sign?  Former D-Leaguer Chris Johnson.  Yep.  And, it’s entirely because he knows the system.  So, the Celts will enter the playoffs with KG at the 5 and two former D-Leaguers backing him up.  Who, exactly, does that leave to back up Bass?  I’d love to see JaJuan get some more meaningful minutes over the next few weeks.

By the way, Kaman is about the longest shot possible at this point.  The NBA (owners of the Hornets) would have to buy him out, he’d have to clear waivers, and then he’d have to choose the Celtics, when all they can offer is the exact same amount every other team can offer.  Why come to Boston when he can go to the Heat or the Spurs?

- The elusive 6th seed.

Before the season, did anyone really conceive the Celtics would be struggling to reach the 6th seed?  I predicted a 3rd seed finish, with the team much closer to the middle-of-the-road teams than the two Eastern powerhouses.  Age, offensive inefficiency, and a lack of rebounding have left the team struggling to maintain the 7th seed.

Unless Atlanta freefalls, I cannot realistically envision the Celtics getting into the 6th seed, which isn’t the worst thing in the world.  I am adamant in my belief that the Celts would be better off facing the Bulls or Heat in the first round, where they could potentially catch them by surprise playing on fresh legs.  If they knock off either the one or two seed, they avoid playing the other until the Conference Finals.  The difficult part for the Celts would be beating the Bulls and Heat consecutively in the later rounds, after a hard-fought and draining battle against a younger, more athletic team.  If Boston knocks out a heavyweight in the first round, they can then throw a few haymakers at a younger, less experienced team who may be in a bit over its head come the second or third round.  The Celtics have the talent (especially in their starting five), but will they have the legs to carry them?

- The draft.  I am still all-in this season, but I’m going to begin looking at draft possibilities.  This does seem to be an especially deep draft with a lot of scorers who also happen to play defense – the kind of guys the Celtics should covet.  Seeing the wealth of talent on teams like Kentucky, North Carolina, and Kansas really makes me wet my lips for draft day.  There are a number of terrific SGs/SFs who drive hard, pull up and hit shots, and play staunch defense, as well as a few talented 7-footers.  I’ll rank the possibilities, position by position, in my next post.

The next eleven games finds the team returning home for a few tough matches against the Heat and the Spurs, while facing bruising road challenges in Atlanta, Philly, Minny, Chicago, and Indiana.  That is not an easy schedule and there are three more back-to-backs to boot.  I can’t envision the team getting through the next eleven games with a winning record, which could create a battle between the Celts and Knicks for the 7th seed.

I hope my next update finds them with a record of 34-21, but I’ll settle for 29-26.  Go Celtics!

Thoughts and Issues:

- The Celtics have issues, and these aren’t issues that can be fixed by a simple roster tweak – i.e. bringing in a D-League player or signing a mid-season free agent.  The Celtics are entering a time of Dynamic Phase Shift, staring at the proverbial ‘fork in the road’.  There is no in-between for this team.  I thought the addition of a true center, like Kaman or Pryz, to the current roster would push this team toward the top, but I’ve come to realize that it won’t be enough.  Even if Ainge could add Kaman or Pryz without giving up anything, this team would still suffer from offensive droughts, poor rebounding, and inconsistency.  The basic flaw with this team is that the age of the Big-3 has caused a dynamic shift in the game plan the team should be employing.  They’re a slow, plodding half-court team.  You know what, there’s nothing wrong with that.  Playoff basketball is slow and plodding.  Consider the growing divide between Rondo’s athleticism and the Big-3’s half-court prowess.  It is oil and water on court.  The organization, and we fans, are dealing with a new and different beast.  Decisions must be made based on the present, not the past (with a little thought given to the future).  The Big-3 + Rondo cannot compete for a championship this year or next.  Within the next two weeks, Ainge will have to decide which version of the team to build around, and, let’s be honest, no one has any idea what Ainge is thinking other than he is ‘open’ to trading anyone on the roster.  Ainge must ruminate over this question: Do I build the team around Rondo and whatever I can get by way of trades or the off-season or do I continue to build around the core of the Big-3?  In my opinion, Ainge should continue to build around the three Hall of Famers, for I see them as a single unit who bring out the best in each other.  If Allen is traded, Pierce and KG will suffer.  If Pierce is traded, Allen and KG will suffer.  If KG is traded, the team may as well crawl in a hole and go into hibernation.  The Celtics have superb players at SG/SF/PF, and they play best as a unit.  Rondo is a talented PG, but he is the odd man out.  His game doesn’t elevate the other three to championship-level, and since no one on the team is signed to a disastrous long-term contract, I see no point in planning solely for the future.  Each season over the next few years Ainge will have cap space to make moves.  If you trade the Big-3 for young talent to run with Rondo, where will the team be in three years when Rondo loses a step athletically and still cannot hit outside shots consistently?  Trading Allen, Pierce, and KG will not bring back equal talent, but rather young, unproven talent and a few draft picks.  Can Rondo lead unproven talent to a championship run before he’s no longer the athletic Rondo we know and love?  If Rondo was Chris Paul, my opinion would be different, but he’s not, he’s Rondo, for better or worse.  That is why, if I were GM, I would continue to stick it out with the Big-3, maximizing the talent around them.  Based on how open Ainge was to trading Rondo during the off-season, he may be leaning in this direction too.  We’ll soon see, as March 6th is only eight days away.

- “First, let’s congratulate the team on its improved play and consistency.  More than picking up wins, a fan likes to see his team building, piece by piece, toward the playoffs.  Wins matter, but so do improvement and cohesion.  This team is currently on the right path.  Let’s hope injuries or a lack of focus don’t derail them before the playoffs.” – That was how I was going to begin this article, until the team hit a massive road bump named ‘INCONSISTENCY’.  Now, my original statement looks sarcastic.  A lot can change in two weeks.  The team had won nine of their past ten games before derailing after a loss to the Lakers on Feb. 9.  Now, they have lost seven of their past eight.  There has been little to no cohesion or consistency, and though disappointing, their play has been anything but surprising.  The ‘starting-5’ hasn’t started many games together, with each starter missing time here or there, and the sixth man (Bass) has been out.  Without a consistent lineup, it’s difficult to set a consistent tone and for everyone to have consistent roles.  For example, people have begun calling Pietrus the ‘new Rasheed’, but is it his fault that he is put in the position to only take threes?  Doc puts him in that position, the one that has him standing at the corner three line waiting for an awkward pass as the shot clock runs down, or running the exact same screen-and-shoot as Ray Allen.  That’s not Pietrus’ game, but that is what he’s being asked to do in lieu of there being a full, healthy roster.

This season is rapidly slipping away, and I don’t think many can argue that this team, as constructed, can turn it around.  Perhaps they can, but they’re already at the bottom of a BIG hill, so they better start soon.  If the Knicks continue to play inspired ball (I don’t think they will), the Celtics will continue to find themselves in the 8th seed, fending off young up-and-coming teams in the Bucks and Cavs; teams whose legs will be younger and fresher come the final stretch of the season.  No fan wants to see the Celtics’ final game of the season (April 26, against the Bucks) take on any more meaning than it has to.

- The saddest realization of the demise of this Celtics’ core (beginning with the trade of Perkins last season) is that this was a core worth loving, not simply liking, accepting, or rooting for.  Since 2008, we fans have been blessed with a team worthy of our adoration and respect.  Pierce, the lifelong Celtic.  Allen, the sweetest shooter in NBA history, who was brought ‘home’ to New England, where he had starred for the UConn Huskies.  Garnett, a competitor built from the mold of Russell and Bird.  Perkins, the scowling enforcer who racked up techs on the floor, but who was always a joke away from releasing that child-like smile.  Rondo, the enigmatic PG who had fans believing he could carry the torch into the next era.  Not one of them came in and felt like a mercenary or an out-of-towner.  They felt like family from the very beginning.  It felt like they’d always been in Celtic Green.

That is what stings most from the demise of this current Celtics team.  That is why I cried at work when Perkins was traded.  That is why I sat on the floor of my living room for hours, unmoving, when they lost Game 7 in 2010.  That is why I ran through the streets of NYC when they won in 2008.  I molded my fiancée, a basketball non-fan into a die-hard Celtics fan.  They always felt like family and they became a part of our family.

Now, Perkins is gone.  Any of the remaining Big-4 could be gone by the end of next week.  It’s an emotional time for us fans.

- Now for some celebratory news.  Let’s all put our hands together for Paul Pierce’s most recent accomplishment – passing Larry Legend on the list of all-time Celtics scorers.  Other than donning my old Pierce jerseys for my weekly bball league, all I can do to honor the man is print what Coach Doc said about him after his feat: “Whenever you pass anybody in Boston that means you’re old, No. 1.  That’s the only way you can get there.  You’ve had to play a long time, because the history of this franchise and the numbers that are amassed.  It’s just amazing — his longevity and he’s been relatively injury free… and he’s been so consistent throughout his career.  Passing Larry Bird in anything is pretty impressive.”  Yes, it is.

- Now for the bad Pierce.  He certainly seems to have hit a wall recently.  Physically, I believe he’s working toward his second wind, but it’s tough to watch.  Though he is still the only player on the team that can create his own shot, he doesn’t have much athleticism left, so his drives to the basket appear to be in slow-mo.  And, he always seems to be yearning for a bail-out foul call rather than an And-1.  Granted he has never received the beneficial treatment allotted to ‘star’ players like Kobe, Wade, and LeBron, but if he truly wants to guarantee the call then he has to bring the ball hard to the rim, not gingerly to the paint.  And, after a non-call, rather than glaring at the officials (ala Kobe), Pierce seems to plead for an apology and a cookie, like a little kid baffled by an unfair world.  It’s tough to see ‘The Truth’ playing more like ‘the truth?’, but I do think he’ll work his way through this latest setback.

- Bass has been out for the past few games, but prior to this recent injury he had proven himself to be the steal of the off-season.  Consider what the team gave up for their multi-talented sixth man – Big Baby and Von Wafer.  Big Baby’s been suspended by his new team and dropped his shorts during a game to protest a call and Von Wafer is still Von Wafer.  Hopefully, Bass continues this steady play and picks up his player’s option for next season.  If he doesn’t, Ainge will have to seriously consider re-signing him.  By the way, is it me, or does Bass have the weirdest jump shot in Celtics’ history?  His entire body seems to scrunch down and then flail out every time he shoots.  The shots go in, however, so I’m not complaining.

- Rondo.  What would a Celtics article be without a section devoted to our enigmatic PG.

He is certainly an intriguing player, so it’s a shame I don’t trust Rondo more.  If only he could improve his shooting (floor and free throw) – he’s been on a relative tear of late, limit his defensive gambling – doubtful, and come to play every night – he is an enigma.  You may be thinking, “Come to play every night?  He’s the toughest guy on the team.”  Rondo is tough and he’s a great competitor…when he wants to be.  Rondo has a bad habit of often playing to the level of his opponent, which is how he can throw up triple-doubles against the Heat and Lakers, but suffer against B-level competition.  He needs to bring it consistently, which includes eating up lesser competition, if he is ever to be the true leader of this team.  [Please don’t start throwing Rondo’s game stats over the past two weeks at me.  Two weeks doesn’t equal consistent play anymore than two weeks makes Jeremy Lin a Hall of Fame player.]  Personally, I don’t think Rondo can be consistent.  I don’t think it’s in his bball personality and he’s never shown it to be a part of his game.  Rondo will forever be an amazing talent who delivers brilliance every so often, but not consistently.   That’s not the guy you want to build a team around, and with a lack of game-changing free agents available (that are considering Boston) with whom to team with Rondo, Ainge has to consider trading him now, while he has value.

Speaking of Rondo’s inconsistency, I’m not too upset over his frustrated reaction that drew an unwarranted 2-game suspension (Kevin Love received 2 games for stomping on Luis Scola’s face), but it may be another nail in his Celtics’ coffin, considering if he’s not traded Ainge is basically banking on Rondo as a team leader entering the next era.  Do team leaders throw balls at refs?  Well, Pierce once ripped his jersey off and acted a fool during a 2005 playoff loss, so maybe there is still hope for Rondo to grow.  But, his recent behavior doesn’t bode well for the future, especially if that future contains a few more bumpy roads.

I’d like to touch on the oft-mentioned Rondo (+O’Neal) for Gasol trade rumor that’s floating around the internet.  I do love Rondo as a Celtic, but that love doesn’t blind me to the flaws in his game, and, let’s be honest, at this time his game doesn’t fit the team around him.  People on this site know I’m open to trading him, and I don’t believe trading him hurts the team long-term because I don’t believe he’s a long-term answer (a piece, perhaps, but not a definite must).  Would I rather trade Rondo for a better fit with Allen/Pierce/KG (players that are here now), or trade Allen/Pierce/KG for a better fit with Rondo (hoping someone super-duper special comes along)?  The former, please.  Gasol brings immediate post improvement to the Celtics on both the offensive and defensive sides.  He’s a scorer and rebounder and a legit 7-footer, and would immediately make the Celtics an inside-out offensive team littered with talented jump shooters.  Yes, the team would then have to pick up a PG to play ahead of Bradley, but finding a competent PG isn’t as difficult as finding a talented, legit 7-footer.  I said competent, not All-Star.  Trade one of the two 1st round picks for someone along the lines of Ray Felton or Jose Calderon or Darren Collison or Mike Conley (someone along these lines, perhaps not one of these guys).  Gasol plus a competent PG extends the window for this team into next season (if Allen and KG return), while trading everyone and keeping Rondo keeps the team…where, exactly?  Gasol is only 31 years-old.  He’s not ancient, and he’s signed for only two more years.  Yes, at $19 million he’s expensive, but here is why Ainge is probably ok with bringing on Gasol’s salary and having less cap space this coming summer – he knows free agents aren’t clamoring to sign with Boston, and other than Dwight Howard is there a better game-changing 7-footer out there?  Gasol would basically be one of Ainge’s free agent signings, however, he’s signed for only two years and he’s certainly not overpaid.  Also, and I don’t necessarily believe this factors into Ainge’s decision, but it is a nice bonus, Rondo doesn’t push the Lakers over the top.  Getting Gasol on the Celtics is a better move than the Lakers adding Rondo.  The Lakers strength rests in Kobe’s continued brilliance and their enormous frontline of Gasol and Bynum.  Subtract Gasol and add Rondo and that’s not a better team.  Add Gasol to the Celtics and they’re immediately better.  Let’s face it, they’re a half-court team on both ends of the court, and Rondo’s half-court offensive game is lacking.  Gasol’s terrific on both ends.  When you consider that the Celtics’ defense is still superb, and many of the games they lose are due to offensive droughts and surrendering too many second-chance points, well, Gasol solves both those problems.  Gasol is an athletic 7-footer who creates his own offense and rebounds like a true center – currently close to 11rpg.  In the Big-3 era, no Celtic has approached 10rpg (KG was at 9.2rpg in 2007-08).  As the hypothetical trade is currently proposed – Rondo+O’Neal for Gasol, I consider it too foolish to pass up.

On the subject of this trade, t.w wrote a nice article that’s worth checking out.

- I’ve been thinking recently about consistency during the post-Original-Big-3 era, which from 1993 until 2007 can be considered the worst era of Celtics basketball.  Which players during that span truly brought it night-in, night-out?  Not just numbers, but actually came to play each night and contribute however they could regardless of if their shots were falling.  Guys who took to the court, hustled, set solid screens, played solid defense, and did the little things to help their team win.  You know, guys like Bird, McHale, Parish, DJ, and the other great Celtics of history.

Reggie Lewis was to be the leader of the Celtics until his unfortunate heart-related death in 1993, which directly kicked off that depressing stretch.  He, much more than Len Bias (who never played a NBA game and died from a drug overdose), was THE biggest loss in Celtics’ history.  Reggie Lewis would have been the next Larry Bird, but that’s a discussion for another time.  Perkins brought it from the moment he arrived, even though he was young and had a steep learning curve.  Anytime Leon Powe hit the floor you knew he was going to bring it, regardless of how many minutes he played.  Perk and Powe never had the most talent on the floor, but they brought it each time they stepped on the floor.  PJ Brown was another, though his stint with the team was short.

From the period of 1993-2007, I cannot remember another player who consistently played hard.  [Who am I overlooking?]  The 90’s and early-00’s were littered with flakes.  Antoine, Ricky Davis, Al Jefferson, Rick Fox, Douglas, Barros, Dee, and then Tony Allen and Big Baby.  They were all as inconsistent as can be.  Some of them are/were very talented, but each one of them could be taken out of a game mentally.  A few of them even admitted to ‘checking out’ time and again.  When that happened, they were useless on the court.  You can’t win a championship with too much useless dead weight playing big minutes.

Pierce, though a talented competitor, played a lot like Rondo in his early years.  The great Pierce would show up against quality opponents, but the early-00’s Celtics lost a lot of games to opponents they should have beat, and Pierce was the team leader that failed to consistently lead.  In many ways, Pierce is still that player, as is evidenced by his coming into the season out of shape and his up-and-down play so far, only the level of talent around him spurs him on more often than not.  This is mostly due to the presence of Kevin Garnett – for an interesting bit of trivia, check out drza44’s article here.  KG arrived as a consistent competitor (one of the greatest in NBA history), and until injuries affected his game in 2009 he was the guy who brought it night-in, night-out.  Age and injuries haven’t killed his desire to bring it, but have numbed his ability to bring it.  Allen, by way of being primarily a long-distance shooter, has his on- and off-nights, and his game seems to wax and wane depending on whether or not he’s getting looks that night (not hitting shots, but getting into the flow of the game by taking shots).  The rest of the current team is as inconsistent as can be, though I am pleased by Brandon Bass’ play this season.  Some of this inconsistency is caused directly by Doc’s always-shifting rotations due to injuries, but the majority of it rests on the players.  When you’re on the court, you give effort.  Plain and simple.

The Celtics haven’t had many consistent, talented competitors over the past twenty years, and my fear of having Rondo as the next de facto team leader is that we fans will be faced with another era of inconsistent play and zero championships.

- After watching Portland play the past few weeks, I’m beginning to think Nicolas Batum may be a potential answer for the Celtics this off-season.  He’s 23 years-old, 6’8”, 200lbs., attacks the rim with abandon, plays defense, and hits the three at a .400+ clip.  He can be used as a backup to Pierce or a starting/backup PF.  He’s a spot starter now, though he does average 30mpg.  Bringing him off the bench at SF with Bass at PF would be a terrific move.  Or, start Batum and Bass, and bring Pierce and a re-signed KG off the bench.  Batum refused Portland’s contract extension (currently makes only $1 million per season), so at the very least he’ll be a restricted free agent at the end of the season.  It is unlikely he’ll demand anything near a max contract, and even if Portland attempts to match all contracts they’ll have to bail at some point due to the number of players they need to lock up in the coming seasons.  I hope Ainge is keeping an eye on Batum.  This is all assuming of course that Jeff Green is not signed again in the off-season.  Batum and he are almost the exact same player, though Batum is younger and won’t be coming off heart surgery.  I wish Green the best, but can Ainge bet on him once again?

- One final celebratory note: The Celtics had not given up 100 points to an opponent since the second game of the season – 29 games, while often undermanned – before giving up 119 to the Thunder.  That is a feat worthy of the annals of NBA history.

- One final lamentable note: Over those 29 games, the Celtics only scored 100 points three times – once again the Raptors and twice against the Wizards.  One thing they’re doing consistently is NOT scoring.

- One non-Celtics note: Did anyone see Perk’s clean screen on Devon Harris during the OCK v. Jazz game on 2/14?  He flattened Harris and didn’t even flinch.  They removed the video off www.nba.com, but the video of his sweet behind-the-back pass is still there.  I tell you, no matter how much certain people think Perk is overrated or overpaid, the Celtics could sure use his presence in the post.

The next twelve games finds the team endeavoring upon its yearly West Coast swing, this year stopping by LA for two (Fakers and Clips), GS, SAC, and DEN, all following a home slate against some tough opponents (HOU, POR, NY).  All twelve games are winnable, but let’s forget the record for a moment and see if the team can simply play consistent basketball.

I hope my next update finds them with a record of 27-17.  Go Celtics!

The Celtics haven’t completely recovered from their slow start, but they’re playing about as well as us fans could hope, especially considering the recent absence of Rondo.

We’re still only twenty-two games into this season.  There is a lot of basketball left to be played.  Here are some thoughts and issues from the past eleven games.

Thoughts and Issues:

- The thought I want to start with is this (a rhetorical question): Has any team in the past few decades destroyed more organizations than the ‘Big 3-era’ Celtics team?  Last week, the Celtics single-handedly destroyed the Orlando Magic franchise, first by holding them to 56 points in a game and then by completing a 27-point comeback.  Dwight Howard is not staying in Orlando, and for years people will refer back to these two games against the Celtics as the epitome of why.  The Celtics put the final two nails into that coffin.  Seem reminiscent of another time?  It is.  Remember back in 2010 when the Celtics single-handedly destroyed the Cleveland Cavaliers franchise, sending LeBron James fleeing to South Beach with his tail between his legs?  No other team since 2008 has altered the NBA landscape to the degree that the Celtics have.  Two franchises with superstar talent lost their superstars because those ‘super’stars realized they couldn’t beat the Celtics without a LOT of help.  I don’t care that the Celtics fell to the Heat in last season’s playoffs.  I’ll always know that LeBron ran away from Cleveland because of what the Celtics did to him.  Regardless of how many titles the ‘Big 3-era’ Celtics end up with, I will always remember how they exposed King James and Superman Dwight to be the cowards and second-bananas they always were.

- Staying with the above thought, it is undeniable that the ‘Big 3-era’ Celtics have been the true barometer in the NBA since 2008.  Teams judge themselves by how they perform against these Celtics.  Before Perk was traded last year, NO TEAM in the NBA had beaten a healthy Celtics team in the playoffs.  Not one.  With a healthy starting five, the Celtics were unbeatable in the playoffs.  Even today, do you think there’s a team in the Eastern Conference that wants to face the Celtics in a seven game series?  If they do, then they have a Sisyphus-complex.  You may beat this older version of the Celtics, but you’re going to have to work for it.  The past eleven games, especially the two against Orlando, have reminded us of what the Celtics are capable of.  It’s a fantastic feeling as a fan.

- The problem with having every team afraid of you is that when they sense weakness they bring everything that have at you, and the Celtics need to be able to withstand another team’s best shot.  So far this season, they haven’t been able to.  At this age, I don’t know if they can.  But, I am feeling better after the past two weeks.  Equal to health will be the team’s willpower.  Can these Celtics bring it every game?  Come playoffs, that’s all that matters.

- After the first eleven games, I wrote that Rondo was the wrong PG for this team.  I believed it in the off-season, and I still believe it, but let’s not get carried away with how well they played in his absence.  The team still needs a PG, and Rondo is an above-average PG (fantastic distributor + poor shooter = above-average PG).  I know that a PG who shot the ball more consistently and hit the occasional three-pointer would be a better addition to this current squad than Rondo, but I am prepared to go the season with Rondo (as I’m sure Ainge is).  He’s certainly better than a mix of Bradley/Moore with Pierce doing most of the offensive initiating.  Come playoff time, that formula won’t work.  Many fans want to rebuild with Rondo come next season, but I don’t see him as the Alpha-type through which to rebuild.  We’ll see.  I definitely believe he’ll be with the team through year’s end.

- Doc has been doing a much better job handling the veterans’ minutes and allowing the rookies to play.  I know his hand has been somewhat forced, but this is stubborn ol’Doc we’re talking about, and he easily could have run Pierce and KG into the ground by now.  Seeing Bradley and Moore on the floor more often bodes well for the team’s future, both short- and long-term.

- The team could still use additional rebounding and low post drills.  The Celts rank at the bottom of the league in all rebounding numbers and points in the paint.  The team still settles for too many jumpers.  KG and Bass have been playing well, but as this shortened season drags on it will begin to weigh heavily on their legs.  And, when the legs go, the jumpers stop falling.  Anyone who plays basketball knows that.  Doc needs to initiate a few more simple low post plays in order to get these big guys closer to the basket.

- Mickael Pietrus has been a wonderful addition, as I always knew he would be.  If only he could have joined the team in 2009 after Posey left.  Pietrus is exactly the type of player the Celtics always needed but couldn’t find each off-season.  He plays defense, runs the floor, and hits open threes.  Great to see him out there doing his thing, being all sexy and knowing it.

- Just added!  Jermaine O’Neal is having a MRI done on his knee due to swelling and/or pain.  Can’t say I’m surprised.  I am disappointed, regardless of how little he fills the stat line.  The Celtics need size and Jermaine has that.  Without him, Ainge will be forced into making a move for a big man, and without many options and very little money he may be forced into trading someone.

The next eleven games brings them through the All Star Game and finds them facing the Grizzlies, Mavs, Lakers, Thunder, and Bulls (twice), while playing three back-to-backs.  This will be a difficult eleven games.  Anything over .500 will be a success.

I hope my next update finds them with a record of 23-10.  Go Celtics!

Before the season (just a few weeks back), I gave the Celtics a ‘puncher’s chance’ to win a championship this season.  Much like Rocky against Apollo, this team is the underdog going up against the more talented, athletic competition.  They still have that puncher’s chance, but they’re certainly facing an uphill battle, and they’re not helping themselves considering this early hole they’re digging (which corresponds to the early hole they’ve been digging themselves in the first quarter of almost every game).

There are key issues that the Celts will have to remedy in order to keep alive this puncher’s chance going through the next 1/6 portion of their schedule, which doesn’t get any easier with games against OKC, ORL, IND, PHO, and NYK, including three back-to-backs.  They’re somewhat lucky that the Eastern Conference is top-heavy, allowing them a good shot at slipping into the lower levels of the playoff field even if they finish right around .500.  If healthy when entering the playoffs, I’d still give them a puncher’s chance against the field.  If they miss the playoffs entirely, staying behind the likes of the Cavs and Bucks, I’d be very, very surprised (barring injuries).  However, it is too early to be discussing what will happen in May-June.  We’re only eleven games into this season.  Here are the issues the Celtics need to deal with to increase their chances of making a championship run.

Issues:

- Rondo is absolutely the wrong PG for this team.  [I know this is a BIG issue to lead off with!]  He plays at a different speed than all of his teammates, and this is not a good thing.  He wants to race down the court on the fast break, but his teammates aren’t able to, so he often goes it alone, missing at the rim and getting ravaged physically.  He is not a finisher at the rim on par with Rose or Westbrook, and at the line he’s hitting only 59% of his free throws, so his absorbed fouls on the fast break rarely bring the team more than one point.  The Celtics will not win games on these single points racked up by Rondo on the fast break.  The Celtics win and lose as a team, a half-court team.  With the pace and spacing that the Celts use on offense, they need a PG that can knock down the outside shot (anything outside of 16 feet).  Rondo still hasn’t developed a consistent jumper, though it has gotten slightly better this year, and he has no three-point shot to speak of.  The perfect PG for this current Celts team would be Steve Nash because of his veteran savvy, short-term contract, and what he can do on the court.  This team needs a PG that controls the half-court, being able to hit open shots and create their own offense.  For as much as Rondo drives to the basket – usually in desperation because a play broke down – he doesn’t finish at the rim, and his free throw shooting leaves something to be desired (as discussed).  With Phoenix currently outside of the playoff picture, perhaps they’d take on Rondo to lead their young team of athletes, while allowing Nash a shot at joining three future HOFers in Boston for one last push.  With Nash at the helm, this Celts team would be tremendously improved, as he can find the open man, hit the open shot, and create his own offense.  Rondo simply cannot do two of those three things.

Why, you may ask, would I propose trading the team’s sole young, signed talent?  In my opinion, by the time Ainge builds a capable team of runners and shooters to surround Rondo, he will have lost a step or two.  The Celts are not coming back next year with Gerald Wallace, Josh Smith and Dwight Howard, and the Big-3 coming off the bench.  That’s not feasible.  The team is not in the position they were in when they traded for Allen and Garnett.  They don’t have the young talent to trade away.  And, regardless of how much money they have for free agency, it seems many young talents don’t want to play in Boston, for whatever reason – Boston wasn’t on the trade lists of Paul or Howard, and West openly chose Indiana.  The Celtics will most likely come away with a few minor free agents, and I find it likely they bring back Allen and Garnett on one-year contracts.  How much will that improve the team if Rondo is still the center piece?  Re-building around Rondo doesn’t seem like the best idea.  He’s certainly good and can be an All Star for years to come, but I’ve watched Rondo play into his sixth year, and I don’t believe he’s the kind of player or person that an organization builds a team around.  He’s limited offensively, gambles defensively, and he’s shown a predilection to petulance and immaturity.  He needs to be surrounded by mature veterans and athletic runners, a difficult roster mix to put together (and one the Celtics had in 2008).

Additionally, there is another big thing that bugs me about Rondo.  He’s fully capable of putting on a defensive tour-de-force and putting up a triple-double while playing the Miami Heat or Chicago Bulls, but he plays down to his lowlier opponents, like the Wizards or Cavs or Raptors.  If Rondo can eat up great teams and match wits with superstars like Rose and Westbrook, then why can’t he consistently destroy lowly opponents?  Is it a lack of focus and desire, or is he simply not good enough to dominate on a consistent basis?  Personally, I feel it’s a lack of focus and desire.  He gets up for the great teams, and is often taken behind the woodshed by the bad teams.  If he can guard LeBron in the playoffs, hounding him to no end, then he should damn well be able to shut down Darren Collison or Jarrett Jack.  But, he can’t, not consistently anyway.  This is a troubling trait for a potential team leader.

One final comment: Rondo’s over-aggressiveness on defense does more to hurt the Celts’ defense than it does to bolster it.  Too often Rondo’s man ends up with an open shot or an open lane where O’Neal or Bass pick up an extra foul (usually on an And-1).  If Rondo truly understood the Celts’ defensive strategy, he wouldn’t gamble as often.  He’s immensely talented, but too often I feel that he feels he has to go it alone because of the age and conditioning of his teammates.  By gambling he puts his teammates in poor position for defensive close-outs and rebounds.  If Rondo’s the leader of this team, then he needs to stick to the system.

If anyone is traded on this team before the season is through it needs to be Rondo, but only in exchange for a top-flight, half-court-capable PG like Steve Nash; preferably, one with a short contract.  I don’t believe this will happen, but if I were Ainge I would look into it.

- Doc needs to update his offensive system.  Watching the Celts on offense brings to my mind the following adjectives: stagnant, predictable, old.  These are the same plays from 2008.  They worked in 2008 because they were new and other teams hadn’t seen them, and the Celtics stars were four years younger and able to better execute.  There are three reasons why these plays are no longer effective: 1) predictability – other teams know how to defend the Celts’ plays; 2) age – the Celts are older and less effective overall; 3) roster turnover – there has been too much turnover in the roster during the past three seasons, and the new guys simply haven’t had time to grasp all the concepts.  The Celts’ offense is built heavily on screens and jump shooting, but they don’t have anyone other than KG who can set a solid screen, and jump shooting can be hit-or-miss (duh!) and long rebounds often lead to fast breaks on the other end.  O’Neal and Bass don’t set screens like Perk or Davis did, and Allen is the only consistent jump-shooting threat on this team (though I know Pierce will get back to being consistent once he deals with his conditioning).  When your offense is based on spacing for jump shooters, wouldn’t it help to have more capable jump shooters?  And, wouldn’t it be nice if Doc actually called a post play for one of his big men?  We have three big men (KG, Bass, O’Neal) who prefer jump shots over post plays, but the coach doesn’t need to cater to that.  Brandon Bass is 6’8:, 250lbs.; put him down on the block and force him to take his man to the rim.  There isn’t one post threat on this team, which makes it very easy for other teams to guard the Celts.

In my opinion, Doc needs to institute a few simple post plays for the likes of Bass and change up the half-court sets so they’re not so heavily dependent on screens from guys who do not set solid screens.  With this current roster, I’m not certain anything will work, but something needs to be shaken up on offense.  Doc needs to get his players closer to the basket, so that finishing becomes easier.  This isn’t a team that can win the way it’s currently playing.

I was very concerned over the past few years with Doc’s offensive play-calling.  I initially did not want him to come back to coach this team, thinking that a new offensive-minded coach could do wonders shaking up the team, while the core group of the Big-4 could lead the team on defense.  Well, this year’s team has a horribly inept offense and a pathetically inept defense.  The offense will not fix itself.  It is predictable and inefficient, a terrible combination for a team hoping to make a run in the playoffs.  The defense?  Well, that can only be fixed through…

- Practice.  The team’s defense will improve with practice time only, and that time is drastically limited in this shortened season.  Game time flies by at a different speed and doesn’t allow for as much repetitive learning and communication.  Only in practice can guys learn their roles and where they need to be on defensive switches and rotations.  The team is trying, but the new guys haven’t had enough practice time and the old guys cannot be in two places at once (when their teammates aren’t in their correct positions).  The Celts’ defense is built on teamwork and rotation, and this team is not prepared to get it done on a consistent basis.  The origin of this issue is the massive roster turnover that has been employed over the past three seasons.  I know Ainge is aiming toward massive cap space in 2012, but he short-changed the team for this season (even before considering the unfortunate absence of Jeff Green – Pietrus is a fine replacement for Green).  Practice time must be as important as game time to members of the Celtics this season.  They must find a way to instill their defense into the new guys before the season is over.

- How about rebounding drills?  Holy crap, how does this team rebound so poorly?  They’re certainly not the shortest team in the NBA.  In fact, they’re over the league average for teams with players 6’10” or taller (average = 4.2; Celts = 5).  The teams with the fewest players 6’10” or taller are the Chicago Bulls and Indiana Pacers (both have only 2 players over 6’10”), and they’re two of the top rebounding teams in basketball.    I can understand having a system in place where your team abandons offensive rebounding opportunities in order to fall back on defense, but how are the Celts this bad at defensive rebounding?  From years of playing ball I have come to believe that rebounding is 40% position/60% hustle (luck is miniscule).  You have to position yourself appropriately based on the shot being taken and the position of your opponent, but more importantly you have to want the rebound more than the guy next to you.  The Celts don’t properly position themselves for rebounds, perhaps because there are so many new faces and they don’t yet have a feeling for each other.  The Celts also don’t ever seem to want the ball (besides Rondo’s occasional hustle for loose boards).  Most of the time, they seem averse to grabbing the ball.  Their opponents go after the ball, and that is why the Celts are suffering.  Can this be fixed?  I don’t believe so.  The team must have discussed rebounding a few times over the past few years, but they continue to suffer from a lack of it.  Apparently, there is nothing Doc can do to get these guys to rebound the ball.  Teams don’t win without rebounding.  As Celtics fans, we’ve learned this first-hand over the past few seasons.  Regardless, I’d love to see the younger guys, like Bass and Pietrus and Stiemsma, go after rebounds with controlled abandon, and it’d be great if the veterans could set the tone by showing more effort.

- Health is always an issue, but there is nothing that can be done about this, besides Doc limiting the veterans’ minutes.  The team is old, on average, and there will be aches and strains along the way.  We fans already knew that everything had to align perfectly – incl. health – in order for the team to make a deep playoff push.  With injuries to Pierce, Wilcox, and Dooling in the first few weeks, we can only hope that the team is getting this out of their system early.

- KG’s lack of aggression has been an issue over the past few seasons, but is truly hurting the team this year.  His leg injury can be blamed for his hesitancy in the past, but this year he is healthy.  He’s older, yes, but he can still be a 15ppg/10rpg guy if his minutes are properly handled and he attacks the basket more often.  More than age, I believe KG’s aggression has dwindled due to the loss of Perk.  When Perk was on the court, KG knew he had a brother-in-arms with him in the post.  Without Perk, KG stands with O’Neal and Bass, both fine players, but soft players who prefer jump shots over dunks.  For the first time in his career, KG looks scared at times on the court.  Defenders know he won’t attack the rim on offense, and he’s lost a step on defense (though he’s still terrific).  He’s not the KG of old, but he needs to be more aggressive than he’s being now.  Knowing he’s approaching the last few years of his career, if not the last, I hope he leaves it all on the court.  It’s all you can ask from a great player as they near the end.

- The starters are playing heavy minutes even though they’re under-conditioned and there are young, energetic legs on the bench.  I know playing youngsters is a tough paradox for Doc to wrap his mind around.  With so little practice time, how does he trust court time to the young guys without sacrificing the best chance the team has to win?  Well, they haven’t been winning and the starters look gassed each game.  Like it or not, with little practice time available, Doc has to throw the young guys into the fire and hope that they learn quickly.  This will only benefit the team in the short- and long-term.  Short-term, it rests the starters for the fourth quarter and the remaining season.  Long-term, the organization gets to see what it has in its young players.  Doc may need to simplify a few things for the young guys – on offense and defense – but, as I said earlier, simplification may be a good thing for this team.  Throw JaJuan down on the block and see what he can do to get to the rim.  Let E’Twaun take the ball off a pick and find his way to the hole.  Give the guys a chance.  And rest the veterans.

There are quite a few issues this team needs to rectify over the coming weeks in order to align themselves for a playoff run.  They have certainly derailed early, but there is time for them to get back on track.  Much of what I mentioned above deals with basic team basketball.  As these guys play together over the course of the season, one would expect defensive rotation and positioning to work itself out, and screens and rebounding can be practiced ad nauseum (when they do practice).  The team’s shooting will hopefully come around as their conditioning improves.  Health is out of everyone’s hands.  Well, that’s not entirely true.  Doc can play his veterans less minutes, increasing their odds of making it through the season injury-free.  Getting young guys more involved now may improve their chances of becoming solid contributors come playoff time.  It’d be great to see E’Twaun contribute during 12 minutes of action in a playoff game victory, which Norris Cole is bound to do for the Heat.  If that’s going to happen, then the kid has to get court time now.  As for my most controversial issue above – Rondo, there is little more to say.  I don’t believe Ainge will trade him, but if Phoenix offers Nash (and a big man like Gortat), Ainge better listen.  If he really cares about this Celtics organization then he has to take off his beer goggles and really look at Rondo’s game.  There are still key aspects to his game that Rondo needs to improve – free throw shooting and consistent focus/desire being the top two (I doubt he’ll develop a three-point shot this season).  Outside of re-loading during the season, we fans can only hope that the team finds a wave and rides it into the playoffs.  It’s possible, but who knows if it’s likely.  The way they’re playing now doesn’t bode well for the future.  They aren’t simply losing games.  They’re playing bad basketball on both ends of the court.  If they can get it together, if Doc can work some magic, if there is anything left in the tanks of the Big-3, then we may see this team play deep into June.  They’ll always be the puncher’s chance for this underdog Celtics team.

And, please, for those who say that all these issues become moot once the team starts winning, that isn’t necessarily true.  The team lost the Finals in 2010 because of a lack of rebounding (which Perkins’ injury simply highlighted).  The team lost to the Heat last season because of an inefficient offense.  Health, and a starting unit that is gassed come playoff time, has been a recurring issue for this squad.  These are issues that have followed this team for seasons, and age and roster turnover are highlighting them in this shortened season.  They’re important issues, regardless of wins and losses.

I hope my next update finds them with a record of 15-7.  Go Celtics!

For my pre-season Celtics prediction, please visit here.

Below are my thoughts on the coming season:

At the end of last season, I had the following thoughts about the yet-unsigned Doc Rivers: “Due to Rivers’ reliance on his starters and the general offensive ineptness of the team [they finished 17^th in offensive efficiency], I wish that he would be let go [at season’s end].  I want a more exciting and competent offensive coach.  My rationale is that, with KG’s authority on defense and a mediocre defensive-minded coach (Ass’t or Head), the team will be fine on defense.  I am concerned about their offense, which was stagnant at times, DOA at others.”

However…

My feelings have changed in the ensuing months; a complete 180 actually.  I am excited that Doc is excited to be back (for 5 years, no less).  I respect athletes and coaches who are excited to be with a specific team.  I root for a specific team, so, as a fan, I enjoy their enthusiasm for that team.  And, Doc, facing what will most likely be growing pains in the coming seasons, seems genuinely excited to be the coach of the Boston Celtics.

In the NBA, successful teams become championship contenders when all players buy into their coach’s systems (if that coach is a good coach); think: Phil Jackson’s triangle offense, Jerry Sloan’s pick-and-roll, Gregg Popovich’s inside-out approach, Rick Carlisle’s heavy use of zone D last season (don’t laugh, most teams scoff at using zone, but he had the length down low and speed up top to utilize it), and Doc Rivers’ Ubuntu – that accounts for 17 of the last 21 Championships.  It’s not enough to have one or two or three great players.  Those great players, and all their teammates, need to buy in entirely to a good system that works with their talents.  There is nothing more telling of a .500 team than that the team and its coaching staff does not share the same vision.  There is little accountability, ball hogs and stat stuffers run rampant, and coaches cannot seem to bring together a unified vision of success.  If anything, championship teams are always on the same page with the same goal in mind.

Doc has his system: balanced defense with precise rotation and accountability and an offense built on getting his three stars the ball in their preferred locations.  This teamwork on D and sharing of the ball on O came to be known as Ubuntu.  Ubuntu worked in 2008, and would have led to Championships in 2009 and 2010 if not for injuries to KG and Perkins.  But, the Celtics have changed.  No more Perkins.  Everyone’s a few years older.  The bench has completely changed three times in the past three years.  Ainge is anything if not aggressive as a GM, and no player can guarantee they’ll be here tomorrow.  The psyche of the team has changed, even if Doc and the Big-4 won’t admit it publicly.  For a team built on chemistry, Doc needs to build that chemistry quickly.  Luckily, chemistry was Doc’s best class in high school.  He took malcontent (Big Baby) after malcontent (Nate Robinson) after malcontent (Sheed) and forced them to buy into his system, as best he could.  If health were never an issue, this team would have won the 2008, 2009, and 2010 Championships.

Now that the Celtics signed Doc for five more seasons, Doc will need to do the following in order to keep the Celtics in contention: limit the starters’ minutes while not undermining what makes the Cs successful (precise ball movement/screens and defensive rotation); force Rondo to shoot 1,000 jump shots and 2,000 free throws every day until he becomes better than league average; very quickly incorporate all new players into the Celtics’ way of life and rotation; inspire the team on a daily basis to fight, fight, fight.  From the most recent reports, he seems to be doing just that.

As for the lineup:

Predicted 2011-12 Depth Chart (from 5/27/11 article Celtic Change):

PG: Rondo / Delonte West / Bradley

SG: Allen / Anthony Parker / Wafer

SF: Pierce / Josh Howard

PF: Garnett / Green / Kwame Brown

C: J. O’Neal / Joel Przybilla / Krstic / Draft Pick #25 (became JaJuan Johnson)

Guys not returning: Glen Davis, Sasha Pavlovic, Troy Murphy, Carlos Arroyo

Actual 2011-12 Depth Chart:

PG: Rondo / Keyon Dooling

SG: Allen / Bradley / E’Twaun Moore

SF: Pierce / Marquis Daniels / Pavlovic

PF: Garnett / Brandon Bass / JaJuan Johnson

C: J. O’Neal / Chris Wilcox

Things obviously changed due to the lengthy lockout and the new collective bargaining agreement, which didn’t necessarily help an over-spending luxury tax team like the Celtics.  It was nearly impossible during the ensuing days post-lockout to imagine what Danny Ainge was going to do, or be able to do, to rebuild the team’s depth chart.  In my book, Ainge did a terrific job (B+).  He brought in a new supporting group for relatively little money, and he kept all his cap flexibility for next season (only Rondo, Pierce, and Bradley are guaranteed).  Considering most top-level free agents are forcing trades prior to free agency, who knows who will be around to sign in 2012 (here’s a list), but Ainge stuck to his original goals while still improving the overall roster of the team for this coming season.

This Year’s Squad:

- Rajon Rondo – His on-again, off-again trade rumors are understandable, and he’s handled them maturely.  I understand why Ainge would want to trade Rondo for a scoring threat at PG.  The team needs additional scoring, and Rondo’s offensive output varies from inconsistent to nonexistent.  Rondo is an amazing pass-first PG (perhaps the best pure PG in the league), but the Celtics are aging and the Big-3 cannot create their own shots night-in, night-out.  The Celtics need a PG who can create his own offense when the team’s offense stalls.  Saying all that, I still am very happy that Rondo stayed in green.  I root for the Celtics as an organization, but I also root for the players as I grow to admire and appreciate their effort and respect for the team’s history and the game.  Rondo is a gamer and a Celtic.  Chris Paul, who Rondo was baited for in a trade, openly said he didn’t want to play for the Celtics.  Fine, Chris Paul, then we don’t want you either.  Rondo needs to work to develop a jumper and a free throw shot, but besides that he’s well-rounded and a tough leader.

- Ray Allen – Still one of the best pure shooters and 3-pt assassins in the league.  But, the team has to work harder at setting solid picks to get him open, and it wouldn’t be a horrible thing for Allen to spend a little time harnessing his one-on-one game to ease the scoring load off Pierce.

- Paul Pierce – The Captain is back.  He’s still the team’s only one-on-one isolation scorer.  There’s going to be a lot of pressure on him to score, so I hope his injured heel recovers completely.

- Kevin Garnett – KG wasn’t going anywhere, and it’s good to see him back and fully healthy.  This may be his one last hurrah overall (it is his 16^th season), so I hope he leaves it all on the court.

- Jermaine O’Neal – As I predicted, he returned to play 18 mpg and collect $6.2 million.  Problem is he may be required to play 20+ mpg.  Will his body hold up?  I think not, which necessitates a trade deadline move to shore up the C position.  But, for now, I’m happy he’s back.  He’s a good player and locker room presence.  Here’s hoping his knees hold up until reinforcements are brought in.

- Avery Bradley – Bradley should be ready for more minutes, but it’s impossible to know how he’ll produce.  It’s time to see, for better or worse.  Problem is that if he doesn’t produce on the floor, he loses all his trade value, and his only value so far has been as an additional chip in a trade package.  The Celtics don’t often play their young guys, but with the condescended schedule they won’t have much of a choice.

- Brandon Bass – The sign-and-trade of Big Baby for Bass was Ainge’s best move of the off-season.  I have desired Bass for two years, and I am shocked Orlando traded him for Baby.  Bass is physical down low and can hit an open jump shot at a better rate than Baby.  He’s also a more consistent rebounder.  He’ll fit in nicely playing alongside or backing up Garnett.  And, he’s signed for two years at a very reasonable price of $4 million per year (though he can opt out).  Baby wanted more than that and got it from Orlando.  When I look at this sign-and-trade, I think, “What was Orlando thinking?”  That’s a good sign for the Celtics.

- Keyon Dooling – He’s a terrific pick-up for the trade exception they earned by trading Marquis Daniels last season.  Dooling can back up Rondo at PG and create his own offense with the second unit.  Solid pick-up.  However, his output will always be compared to that of Delonte West last season, since he, in essence, replaces West in the lineup.  Can he give the team the defensive toughness West gave to the back-up PG and SG spots?  I believe he can, while upgrading West’s offensive contributions.  And, it’s telling that Doc has a man-crush on him.

- Marquis Daniels – Speaking of Daniels, he’s back.  And, count me in as one who believes this is a terrific pick-up for the money.  He may be injury-prone, but when he’s on the court he’s tough, intelligent, and knows the system.  No one gets to the basket like he does on cuts, and he’s a terrific finisher around the rim.  He’s a lunch pail guy, a Celtics guy, and Doc trusts him enough to throw him in any situation.  Daniels is the team’s James Posey, which is why Ainge avoiding going after James Posey.

- Chris Wilcox – I like the Wilcox signing.  He’s a tough guy down low and should play a lot of Center for this team.  He’s also excited to be on a playoff-bound team for the first time in his career.  Fans can easily compare him to Reggie Evans or Chuck Hayes or the like, but Wilcox is a good signing for the money.

- Sasha Pavlovic – I wrote the following back in May: “If the Celtics run out of salary cap space and need to resign one of their own guys to soften the cap hit in lieu of signing Przybilla or (Josh) Howard, I believe it will be Sasha.”  Perhaps he can contribute throughout the season, backing up the backup at SF.  He was once the second-best player on a Cavs team that made it to the Finals.

- JaJuan Johnson – I love the Johnson pick.  He has experience (4-year college grad) and talent.  He’s mature and has extreme length.  He’s an explosive leaper with shot-blocking skills.  He can score with either hand.  He rebounds.  He should fit right in and learn from the vets.  It’s great to see that KG has taken him under his wing.  If anything, Rondo was given another running partner on the break.  Let’s see how many minutes he’s given this season.  He’ll have to prove himself to Doc in practice, especially on the defensive end, before he sees any floor time.

- E’Twaun Moore – They didn’t draft a Euro to stash in Europe, like I thought they would, but they did draft a tweener guard who may spend some time in the D-League.  With the 55^th pick, it’s terrific to get a 4-year college grad from a winning program.  The guy has skills, and has seemingly earned the respect of his teammates.  If Moore can deliver come game time, then his selection may be the steal of the draft.

Injured (Out for Season):

- Jeff Green – I was very excited to have Green back on a one-year deal, until his unfortunate health scare forced him to miss the season.  Best of luck to him health-wise.  This is a blow to the team, but how much of a blow?  A lot was expected of Green, performance-wise, whether it should have been or not, but there was no guarantee he was going to be anything other than the player he was last season.  He has the size and athleticism to be a difference-maker, and another year in Doc’s system would have improved his chances of making a difference.  Now, we fans wait until next year, when it looks like he’ll be back in the mix, perhaps with an entirely new team around him.

Possible Late Additions to Roster:

- Greg Stiemsma – The question here is, “Can he provide the team with what Semih Erden provided the team?”  I liked Erden quite a bit.  He showed a lot of heart playing with an injured shoulder and he produced as well as one could expect, if not better, when he filled in as a spot starter.  Can Stiemsma do the same?  If he makes the team, he will be expected to play a few minutes, being the only true C behind O’Neal.  He’s known for his defense, which is good.  But, the Celtics struggle on offense and it’s not known whether he can provide any measure of an offensive game in the post.

- Gilbert Brown – The unsigned player of Pittsburgh has been practicing with the team during the pre-season, but it’s unknown if he’ll make the roster.  He’s 6’6”, 215lb, which is good size, and he plays with energy, but will Doc even trust him enough to warm the bench.  The team could take a flier on him until someone better becomes available.

Didn’t Resign:

- Glen Davis – Many fans will write eulogies of Big Baby’s time on the team, praising him for what he delivered or chastising him for what he did not.  I believe it was time for a parting of the ways, and receiving Bass in exchange was a steal on Ainge’s part.  Baby had some special moments in Green, and I thank him for those, but it was time for both sides to move on.  No tears shed here, unlike with the Perkins trade where I actually cried at work and stepped out for a drink.

- Delonte West – The Celts went with Dooling.  Will I miss West?  Yes.  Do I believe Dooling can fill his shoes and perhaps be a better offensive contributor?  Also yes.

- Von Wafer – Sent as part of the trade that brought Bass.  Can’t complain.  I’d rather see what Bradley has to offer than give those minutes to Wafer.

- Troy Murphy – In my opinion, Ainge’s choice to re-sign a player from last year’s team in order to round out this year’s squad came down to Pavlovic or Murphy.  Can’t fault Ainge for choosing Pavlovic, even though Murphy would have brought that elusive height the team is lacking.  Murphy never seemed happy last season after signing with the Celts, and he didn’t perform well when on the court, so no one can be saddened by his not returning.

Missed Out On:

- Chris Paul – A few years back, I would have traded the entire team outside of the Big-3 for Chris Paul, but this year I was against it because of his deteriorating knees and his unwillingness to sign an extension.  And, I will once again state that if Chris Paul doesn’t want to play for the Celtics (which he let be known), then I, as a fan, don’t want him on the Celtics.  He let it be known that he’d rather play for the Clippers (and Donald Sterling, by association).  Really???  The Clippers???  Good luck playing for the Clippers, where he’s one knee injury away from becoming a forgotten great.  The Clippers, as they’re currently constructed, have absolutely no chance of getting past the Lakers, Mavs, Thunder, or Grizzlies during the two seasons in which they’ll have Chris Paul.  And, then, you can bet that Chris Paul is as good as gone.

- David West – I had been pining for David West to be on the team for years, but there was always one (good) problem, the team had Kevin Garnett.  West was unnecessary.  This off-season, West would have been a fantastic pick-up, but the team didn’t technically need him considering they had already went out and grabbed Brandon Bass and Chris Wilcox, both PFs.  And, kind of along the lines of Chris Paul’s desire to avoid playing for the Celts, West (apparently) chose to go to the Pacers as opposed to accepting a little less money to play for the Celts.  Really???  The Pacers???  Good, young team or not, the Pacers are no Celtics, and their squad doesn’t have 4 All Stars and 3 Hall of Famers.  Good choice, Mr. West.  Enjoy backing up Tyler Hansbrough.

Never Approached (Went Another Way):

- Joel Przybilla – I wish they were able to get this guy, and they still may come January.  He has the perfect nasty streak that this team lacks without Perkins in the lineup, and he’s a rebounder, which they desperately need.  He’s an injury risk though, and is actually waiting until the new year to sign with a team (due to his latest leg-related surgery).

- Josh Howard – The Celts could have used him, but they picked up Daniels instead.  Look, they’re both injuries waiting to happen, so I can’t fault Ainge for going with the guy who already knows Doc’s system.

- Kwame Brown – Once the options became limited, I thought Ainge would sign Brown, but he went to the Warriors for more money than the Celts had available.

- Anthony Parker – Once again, Ainge decided it was better to bring back Daniels.

Final Analysis:

The Celtics will finish 3rd in the Eastern Conference behind both Miami and Chicago, but ahead of New York, Orlando, Indiana, and Atlanta, though they’ll be closer to the second pack than the first.  The Celts have the same starting five from last season’s playoffs, but an improved bench, but is that enough for us to believe they can make it to the Finals?  The Heat and Bulls basically stood pat, while possibly becoming slightly better with their additions of Battier and Hamilton, respectively, but it is not the top two teams that I fear from the position of a fan – they’re inarguably better teams with younger superstars, and losing to either of them wouldn’t be an embarrassing disappointment.  Losing to the upstart young-ens would be a disappointment.  The Knicks and Pacers have become decidedly better, and though they still have glaring holes, they have another season together to work out kinks before the playoffs start.  The Magic and Hawks are veterans of the playoffs at this point, and their rosters suggest that they’ll be about as good as they were last year.  The Magic’s success depends entirely on the destination of Dwight Howard come playoff time; if he’s on the Nets, then the Nets will be more dangerous than the Magic.  This Celtics squad could easily lose a playoff series to the upstart Pacers (or Knicks) if health and focus come into question.  I’d hate to see that happen.

Once again, the Celtics will have to find a way to battle through the regular season, attempting to avoid any serious injury, to set themselves up for a deep playoff run.  Ainge has five months to either shore up the bench or blow up the team.  All will be dependent on how they’re playing.  Trying to predict what Ainge will do in that scenario is a ludicrous notion; he’s liable to do anything.  I’m hoping everyone stays healthy and Ainge isn’t forced to do anything drastic.  Shore up the bench with a scorer and a big man and, in my opinion, this team will be set come playoff time.

Can this opening day roster, at full health, win the East and make it to the Finals?  There is a puncher’s chance.  And, at this late stage in the era of the Big-3 that is all for which we fans can hope.  Go Celtics!

For past Celtics-related articles, click Celtic Change, Celtics 2011, Celtics!, Reggie Lewis: 17 Years Ago…, One Win Shy, Celtic Pride, and Celtics v. Cavs: The Last Hurrah?.

What I take away from the process is the following: there are too many rounds of voting, it is impossible to watch every game of every players’ career, having to select between four and seven players negates the true nature of the Hall of Fame – it’s not about quotas, and having voters meet to vet candidates the day before the Super Bowl is ill-timed and counter-productive since they’re all journalists who have to cover the big game.

Why don’t they just select the deserving ones and leave the others out?  Why force the committee to select four, if only three are worthy?  Why stop at seven, if eight are worthy?  The distribution of the positional selections is askew, as more offensive players are selected, with QBs leading the way, and lineman are relegated to obscurity.  It certainly pays to touch the ball more often and put up gaudy numbers that can be statistically accounted for.  It’s difficult to pinpoint the career success of an offensive lineman or middle linebacker or free safety, unless you watch every game.  There aren’t passing yards, sacks, and interceptions to fall back on.  You can count Pro Bowls, but as the past few years’ selections show, there are always snubs and questionable selections.

Championships mean quite a lot in football, more so than in the NBA or MLB, in my opinion, which is weird since there are so many more individuals on the field-of-play and each one holds a piece of the championship puzzle.  Numbers mean quite a lot, but aren’t as stringently delineated as in baseball (but in baseball the same guys play offense and defense – uh oh, what is that about the DH?).  It’s good to have a lot of numbers, but a lot of numbers don’t get you in.  Longevity is a big key.  Consistency is a bonus.  Accolades help.  Name recognition is huge.  But everything in this sport is so dependent on everything else, so it’s difficult to focus on what’s important.  Quarterbacks cannot put up numbers without help; same for running backs.  Linemen get their names blocking for good QBs and RBs.  Defense is a unit, but individuals are voted on.  Should interceptions and sacks count, when so often it’s the teammates that allow for those individual stats?  Name recognition and media appreciation help to aim the focus, but, in the end, what really matters?

Here’s a quote from Cnnsi.com writer Peter King discussing the merits of wide receivers eligible for the HOF (9/26/11): “You can number yourself to death at the receiver position. That’s why I favor the Hall of Fame voters — of which I am one — judging receivers as much by what they saw in the players as the numbers players accumulated.”  Fine sentiment.  In many ways, I agree.  However, and here’s the HUGE problem with the voting process, not all of the local sports writers are able to see every receiver play every game of his career.  The Indianapolis Star writer (that team/city’s designated HOF voter) will watch every catch of Marvin Harrison’s career, but he will miss a majority of Chris Carter’s and Tim Brown’s.

It’s a very confused mess.

In my humble opinion as a fan and student of the game, here are my selections for current players and coaches, and a few recently retired ones:

*the 4/7 rule makes this difficult, as it’s impossible to assume when a player will retire and become eligible.

LOCKS (100%, and if you vote ‘no’ you deserve to have your right to vote revoked):

Peyton Manning – Numbers?  Check.  Accolades?  Check.  Name recognition?  Check.  He’s in.

Tom Brady – Numbers?  Check.  Accolades?  Check.  Name recognition?  Check.  He’s in.

Brett Favre – Numbers?  Check.  Accolades?  Check.  Name recognition?  Check.  He’s in.  But, Favre is a different case from Brady and Manning, at least so far in their respective careers.  Favre has become a bit of a nightmare/joke over the past three years, but he was a great, albeit erratic and sometimes heart-breaking quarterback, so he’ll get in, but let’s not forget…he sold out on Michael Strahan’s record single-season sack.  He’s the all-time leader in consecutive games started and career passing yards (by a country mile).

Ray Lewis – The linebacker of his generation, based on name recognition (stats don’t really play into the role of linebacker – though he did become the first linebacker ever with 30 interceptions and 40 sacks).  His influence on his opponent’s offensive game plan is without question.  It shames me to put him as a lock considering he was heavily involved in a stabbing following his Super Bowl victory.  Lewis pled guilty to obstruction of justice and had the murder charges dropped in exchange for testimony against his co-defendants.  It’s telling that he reached a financial settlement with the four-year-old daughter of one victim, born months after the death of her father, preempting a scheduled civil proceeding.  Lewis then reached an undisclosed settlement with the other victim’s family.  Shameful.  My placement of him in the Lock section is based off what I believe will happen, not on what I would do if placed in the position to vote.  Based on issues of ethics and morality, I would abstain from voting based on his checkered career off the field.

LaDainian Tomlinson – He’ll get in.  There’s no question.  He’s one of the best running backs in NFL history.

Jonathan Ogden – 11 years in the league, 11 Pro Bowls, 9 All-Pros.  Coaches and media members love him.  He’s the prototypical modern offensive tackle.

Will Shields – In his entire career, he never missed a game.  Blocked for three 1,000 yard rushers (all HOF candidates).  Blocked for five 4,000 yard passers (none HOF candidates).  He did everything exceptionally and consistently.

Larry Allen – There seems to be a push lately to select offensive lineman, as their position is increasingly revered and their stats better quantified.  Allen’s stats with sacks allowed are amazing, as in, he doesn’t allow many sacks.  He’s one of the best ever (with four lineman next to him) in fewest sacks allowed.  That means something, especially since he was protecting the immobile Troy Aikman and the old Randall Cunningham.

Warren Sapp – This is just a gut feeling, but he will make it.  He has fantastic name recognition, and lived up to it during the peak of his playing days.  His peak didn’t last as long as others, but he did enough during his time on top.

Tony Gonzalez – He holds most of the all-time Tight End records, but HOF voters don’t select many TEs.  He’s 45th on the NFL’s Top-100 Players of All-Time List, and the only players ahead of him not already in the HOF have the surnames Manning, Lewis, Favre, and Brady.  He’ll be the TE of his generation to make it.

NEAR-LOCKS (97% there, but some fools could vote ‘no’):

Junior Seau – He’ll get in, but I’m not 100% certain that he’ll get in during his first year.  I don’t exactly know why.  It may be the denouement of this career, when not much happened.  Once again, it’s difficult to measure a linebacker’s worth, other than their overall impact on the game.  Seau was a monster during his peak years.  The fact that I, as do many others, remember him as a monster bodes well for his candidacy.  He is an all-time great.

Jason Taylor – He has an interesting case to make, and depending on his competition during his eligible years, I think he has a healthy chance of being inducted.  He’s currently tied for eight on the all-time sack list.  Something that will hurt him is his lack of deep playoff experience.  He, unfortunately, was always the co-anchor (with Zach Thomas) of phenomenal defenses that never made it to the Super Bowl.

Randy Moss / Terrell Owens – Gosh, I don’t know.  Is Moss worthy, by the numbers?  Yes.  Is Moss one of the greatest wide receivers in history?  Yes.  Perhaps.  Maybe.  His character has a lot to do with my hesitancy in declaring him a ‘fo sho’.  I do believe many voters will hold his antics, on-and-off-field against him, especially considering the merit of receivers who aren’t in yet (Chris Carter/Tim Brown).  My gut feeling?  Moss is in.  And, if Moss makes it, doesn’t Owens have to make it too?  He’s second all-time in receiving yards (Moss is fifth).  I don’t know.  The media onslaught that will inevitably surround their votes will have me tuning out ESPN for weeks on end.

Derrick Brooks – He’s in the top-5 for career tackles.  He’s was the best known linebacker in the league prior to Ray Lewis.  He should be a guaranteed selection, but you never know.  His name recognition doesn’t equate to that of Ray Lewis.  [Name recognition affects beat writer voters just like it does ESPN marketing executives and NFL apparel executives].

Kurt Warner – He didn’t have a long career, but he had an amazing peak.  He finished his career seventh on the all-time passer rating list and second on the all-time completion percentage list.  When he dropped back he was deadly, accurate, and feared.  Is that enough?  How about his exceptional post-season numbers: first in completion percentage, yards-per-attempt, and passer rating.  And, he’s got a Super Bowl victory, which always elevates a QB in the mind of both voters and the general public.

Brian Urlacher – Seems to me that he’s extremely talented, highly respected, and much revered within the football community.  He hasn’t been the linebacker of his generation (because of Ray Lewis), but he’s in the top-3.

Cris Carter / Tim Brown / Marvin Harrison – Carter and Brown have almost identical numbers, numbers that surpass many current HOFers, but they’re not receiving the necessary votes for induction, possibly because their numbers are marginalized by those who believe they are products of their era.  Well, heck, every receiver is a product of his era, and Carter and Brown were two of the best of their era.  They showed up every week and delivered – receptions, yards, first downs, touchdowns, blocks.  They did it all.  They deserve induction.  Harrison’s greatest argument is that he was the go-to receiver for one of the greatest QBs in NFL history.  It does matter who you play with.  He’s actually probably more likely to make it than Carter or Brown because he spent his career with Manning.  Voters remember things like, “Manning to Harrison for the touchdown.”  It plays on a loop in their minds as they sleep.  Who threw to Tim Brown for most of his career?  Jeff Hostetler, Jeff George, Rich Gannon…  Who threw to Carter?  An old Warren Moon, an old Randall Cunningham, a young Culpepper, and Rich Gannon (again).  Neither Carter nor Brown had the benefit of receiving passes from a HOF-type QB in his prime.

Jeff Feagles – He and Anderson are the ultimate punters in recent NFL history.  If the voters vote in a punter, they’ll both get in.

Morten Anderson – He and Feagles are the ultimate punters in recent NFL history.  If the voters vote in a punter, they’ll both get in.

FUTURE LOCKS (51% there, steady as she goes):

Drew Brees – Because the NFL’s HOF voting is so odd, it’s tough to predict the outcome for some players.  I mean, on paper, Drew Bledsoe looks like a HOF-er, but he’ll never get in (mainly because he never won a Super Bowl).  How much will Brees’ Super Bowl campaign of 2010 affect his selection?  He’s a gunslinger, and gunslingers do get into the HOF (Tarkenton, Fouts, Moon), but not as often as Super Bowl winners.  Brees has one Super Bowl, probably won’t get another, and may need a few more solid years of winning football and good numbers to warrant serious consideration.  He’s climbing up all of the meaningful statistical QB charts.  Regardless, he belongs in the Louisiana Sports Hall of Fame for his charitable actions in and around the city of New Orleans.

Aaron Rodgers – He arrived at 51% with his Super Bowl victory over the Steelers (the league’s best defense).  This listing assumes that he’ll continue to throw completions without interceptions, and that he’ll win another Super Bowl; one, at least.  If he does that, he’s in, because he’ll have the numbers (if he stays healthy).  It helps that he’s the capable QB and leader of a historic football team.

Ben Roethlisberger – His percentage may reflect how many more Super Bowls he wins, regardless of how he plays in them.  He’s had one very good Super Bowl (XLIII, won), one lousy Super Bowl (XLV, lost), and one horrendous Super Bowl (XL, won).  If the Steelers keep him as their QB, he has the chance to play in a few more.  If he ends up with 4 rings in 6 opportunities (or something close), then he’s a lock.  If he never makes it to another Super Bowl, he probably won’t get in, even if he has a few more solid regular seasons.

ON THEIR WAY (37.5% there, don’t derail):

Troy Polamalu – He’d be a future lock if I knew he’d stay injury-free, but he’s been hampered during the past few seasons.  His numbers will never reach Rodney Harrison’s, and no matter his “influence on the game,” his numbers are only slightly above-average.

Ed Reed – He’s 27 off the all-time career lead in interceptions, but I’ll bet he ends up within 15.  He’s an amazing defensive player and ball hawk, but with Ray Lewis a guaranteed lock, is there room for another player from a defense that won only one Super Bowl.

Champ Bailey – He’s been selected to ten of the past eleven Pro Bowls.  He’s going to finish pretty high on the career interception list.  I feel he’s going to end up in the Hall of Very Good, like Aeneas Williams.

AN OUTSIDE SHOT (20% there, with ground to cover):

Charles Woodson – Hall of the Very Good.  He’s only 45^th on the all-time interceptions list, but he’s a seven-time Pro Bowler and a recipient of the Defensive Player of the Year award.  He could go either way in the voting, depending on how guys like Peter King remember him.

Darren Sharper – This far along in his career (14 seasons), and I only have him at 20% of the way there.  I’m not sure how much more ground he can make up.  He’s currently tied for sixth place on the all-time interceptions list.  Perhaps indicative of his overall play, he’s only made five Pro Bowls during his fourteen seasons, while a guy like Bailey has made ten in his eleven years.

Michael Vick – Let’s see what he does during the rest of his career, on-and-off-the-field.  I still don’t buy that he is the man his (and the NFL’s) marketing team depicts to be, and that would affect my vote; I can’t speak for the actual voters.  To me it matters if you spent your off-season electrocuting and shooting dogs.  It reveals a basic lack of humanity, and there must be a bylaw in the voting process stating that only human beings be elected.  Career-wise, when it’s all said and done, his QB rushing numbers will be impressive, but his passing numbers will not, so unless he leads the Eagles to two or three Super Bowls, he doesn’t placement amongst the likes of Montana, Young, Manning, Brady, Favre, Marino, and others.  He’s also much too fragile and probably won’t play a consistent, long career.

Larry Fitzgerald – He is prolific at age 27, but will he wallow in Arizona without Kurt Warner?  Kevin Kolb will determine Fitzgerald’s HOF relevancy.

Terrell Suggs – I don’t think he’ll get there, but he’s having a nice career.  And every year he seems to get better.  After this seasons, I may bump him up a level.

Philip Rivers – I don’t care how many yards he throws for, how about winning a playoff game.

Dwight Freeney – He continues to build a nice HOF resume for an until now perennial Super Bowl contender.

Wes Welker – If he continues his semi-prolific partnership with Tom Brady, he has an outside shot at the HOF.  He has fast become one of the most unstoppable offensive forces in the NFL, thanks to Brady and the Patriots’ system.

GOOD, BUT NOT… (12% there, but not likely to make it):

Andre Johnson – He has impressive career numbers for a 29-year-old (matches up nicely to Larry Fitzgerald), but he doesn’t have the name recognition or the deep playoff run to impress the rather fickle judges.

Reggie Wayne – His numbers are very impressive considering he played his early career alongside potential HOFer Marvin Harrison, but the remainder of his career could depend heavily on the health and longevity of his QB, Peyton Manning.

Eli Manning – Last name notwithstanding, he is not a HOFer.  What’s that I hear?  Giants’ fans laughing at me… No, that’s the sound of Giants’ fans bemoaning another ill-timed Eli fumble.  However, despite his marginal talent and numbers, he has name recognition as the leader of a big-time team and he has a Super Bowl ring.  QBs have gotten in with less.

Chris Johnson – He was on his way to a prolific career, but as so often happens with RBs, he burned out, due, in part, to his lengthy holdout this season.  Maybe he’ll bounce back and put up a number of good seasons.  That will be the only chance he has.

YOUNG-ENS (5% there, but a long way to go):

Matt Ryan – Terrific first few years in the league (in the regular season, at least).  Let’s see what he does over the next 8-12 season.  He’ll need a Super Bowl or two to garner consideration.

Haloti Ngata – May be the torch bearer of the Ravens’ defense.  He’s been very impressive in his first few years and has just re-signed with the Ravens.  Health and consistency will be keys to his candidacy.

Darrelle Revis – He has amazing name recognition and he’s building his most visible stats (INTs, TD Returns).  If the Jets stay successful throughout his career, or he manages to stay on successful teams, he may become a Lock someday.

Clay Matthews – The leading linebacker for the defending champions.  That speaks a lot.  We’ll see how he manages the next 12 years of his career.  He has a shot.

DeMarcus Ware – He has a shot, but isn’t anywhere near HOW-worthy yet.

Ndamukong Suh – Great name recognition and a budding career.  He has a number of goals to reach in his career prior to real consideration, but he has a nice beginning.

THANKS, BUT… (so close, but never quite made it):

Rodney Harrison – He’s got good numbers and two Super Bowl rings, but he doesn’t seem likely to be inducted.  It’s a vibe I have.  Perhaps there are too many safeties.  Perhaps his numbers don’t match up to what will be selection material in 5 years.  Only 22 Defensive Backs (Corners and Safeties combined) have ever been inducted, so the path is difficult.

Jerome Bettis / Curtis Martin / Edgerrin James – If I had a vote, I’d vote ‘no’, but it’d be close and I could be swayed toward a ‘yes’.  Their careers are nearly equal, though their styles are completely different, and they’re all great, but not HOF-great.  However, I will not be shocked if Bettis and Martin get in.  James would be a bit of a reach.

Donovan McNabb – Possibly the most-discussed QB of the past 25 years not named Favre.  Every football fan has an opinion on Donovan’s talent and career.  I, personally, think he’s a good QB, but not nearly HOF-worthy.  If he manages to have a career resurgence, it will bolster his candidacy.

Michael Strahan – Yeah, he’s fifth on the all-time sack list, and bound to stay there for a bit, but I don’t think he warrants consideration.  He was very good, but this isn’t the Hall of Very Good, and his single-season sack record, though highly-impressive, came on a gimme from Brett Favre.

Ronde Barber – He’s been a class-act and team leader since his first years in the league, and though he’s played well for over fifteen years, I don’t believe he’ll get in.  There will be a healthy amount of discussion over his candidacy, as many players with similar careers have already been enshrined.

Andre Reed / Hines Ward – Very good and highly respected, but my vote is an unfortunate ‘no’ for these two.

Antonio Gates – Was on his way, but recent injuries have derailed his career.  He may be a closer vote than I’m assuming, but I have to make a decision here.  I go with ‘No’.

Walter Jones – Close, but no.  He was a great lineman, though.

Zach Thomas – Very good linebacker for a very good defense, but he’s not an all-time great.

James Farrior – Nice career, but no.

Brian Dawkins – Good, but no.  He lacks the numbers to bolster his impressive talent.

Shaun Alexander / Fred Taylor / Thomas Jones – Great careers, but no.

Orlando Pace – Good, but no.

Alan Faneca – A solid LG, but not likely to make it.

Isaac Bruce / Torry Holt – Only two All-Pros between them?  They don’t seem likely.  They were both good, possibly very good, but they weren’t great.

Mark Brunell – A good, long career, but he’s a no.  His career is oddly akin to Rich Gannon’s, who isn’t HOF-worthy.

Drew Bledsoe – If he had won the 1996 Super Bowl, and had a lengthier career, I’d be writing a lengthier comment regarding his chances of getting in.

Kerry Collins – He should have won the Super Bowl in 2000…and had a more consistent career.

COACHES:

The HOF voters are notoriously fickle at inducting coaches.  Only 21 have been inducted throughout the history of football, and only seven of those men retired after 1980.  21!  And only seven in the last thirty years (admittedly, there are many good candidates still coaching today).  More than winning games or Super Bowls, a coach has to place their stamp on the game.

Bill Parcells – Lock.  More for his all-around presence throughout the game.  He’s an institution, brought in at this point in his career to fix teams (though it didn’t work with my beloved Dolphins).

Bill Belichick – Lock.  Mostly for his three Super Bowls in four years and his 167 wins, currently 11th on the all-time list (soon to pass Bill Parcells).

Tony Dungy – Near-Lock.  Finished with one of the highest winning percentages in history and has collected accolades for his work with players throughout the league and youth throughout the nation.  It also helps (and don’t bemoan me for being honest) that he’s black.  He’d be the first black coach ever inducted, and look at the rest of my list – only Mike Tomlin is a minority.  The league is just getting around to hiring blacks as head coaches, and it will be a monumental day, I’m sure, when Dungy is inducted for his contributions to the game.  I’m almost certain he’ll get in.

Mike Holmgren – An Outside Shot.  Though he’s 12th on the all-time win list, I don’t think he’ll get in.  Remember, only 21 coaches have been selected.  But Marv Levy made it, so you never truly know.

Bill Cowher – An Outside Shot.  He’ll be a close ‘no’.  He won a Super Bowl and has a fantastic winning percentage, but I don’t think he left enough of a mark on the game of football.  He retired relatively young and never returned from the television booth.

Marty Schottenheimer – Good, But Not.  Win a playoff game, how ‘bout ‘ya.  Ok, you got 5 playoff wins, but you also have 13 losses.  Retired with 200 wins (good for 6th all-time), but no Super Bowls.

Jeff Fisher – Thanks, But.  Hasn’t done enough.  Never won a Super Bowl.

Tom Coughlin – Thanks, But.  No.

Andy Reid – Thanks, But.  No.

Mike Tomlin – Young-Ens.  Already one Super Bowl in two appearances, with the good fortune of coaching a Steelers team that is good every year, in part to his coaching ability.

Sean Payton – Young-Ens.  Depends on how he coaches once Brees retires.  If he had had Brees since he was a rookie he may have won a few more Super Bowls, but he’ll soon have to replace the prolific passer and build a team around another QB; not an easy task.

Mike McCarthy – Young-Ens.  Has a chance to build something special with this current Packers franchise.  We’ll see.

Rex Ryan – Young-Ens.  If you were to ask him, his entire Jets team should be elected today.  We’ll, in my opinion, he hasn’t done much yet, so let’s see his team cash some of those checks his mouth keeps writing.

John Harbaugh – Young-Ens.  Actually has been steadily re-building the 49ers into a winning franchise.  Let’s see what he can do with a little Luck.

Check back in 20 years to see how I did!

For my MLB and NBA HOF articles, click the links.

This is an easy place to start, and an even easier place to ignore and move on.  We are all witnesses to what happened and, in all honesty, I’m over it and ready for next season.

MANAGER:

[Note: This all became moot Friday afternoon when it was announced that Francona was not returning as manager of the Boston Red Sox.  But I decided to post it in its entirety anyhow.]

I was going to write this as a separate post entitled Defending Francona, although that may sound more like a 1980s courtroom drama starring Al Pacino and Melanie Griffith than a short defense of Manager Terry (Tito) Francona.  Let’s face it, Francona is more likely to be portrayed by Mike Myers in Dr. Evil garb (or a chubby Ben Kingsley) than Pacino, although recently he’s been portrayed by many as the villain or the scapegoat in the epic Red Sox collapse of September 2011.  Fret not; I’m not here to call for the man’s head.  I am here to rally support for the man who guided my beloved team to two World Series championships in the past eight years.

Though I am not above calling for a manager’s head (I am a Dolphins fan clamoring for the removal of Tony Sparano), I am not quick to do so and must find ample evidence in order to do so.  In Sparano’s case, there are consecutive losing seasons, his below-.500 managerial record, an 0-4 start to the current season, the 10-14 home record during his tenure, constant red-zone failure, poor play-calling on offense, general poor play on defense and special teams, poor conditioning, and leaked news from within the locker room (never a good sign during the season!) stating that players are either unhappy or uninspired.  In football, that falls on the coach, and he needs to be the first to go.  The coach (and his staff) regulates practice and off-season conditioning, infuses new players into their roles, calls offensive plays, selects defensive packages, and controls the workload of his players.  Basketball and hockey coaches have a very similar job – offensive plays, defensive packages, training through practice, etc.  Football, basketball, and hockey coaches put their players in specific positions and then tell them which plays to run in order to better succeed.  The players are, in many ways, the conduit to the coach’s beliefs and game plans.  The coach is the mastermind, the players his puppets.

Baseball is a different beast.  The manager controls the set-up of things (lineups, pitching staff, bullpen use, etc), but he has little in-game control, especially over how players perform, and he has very few subs on whom to call on.  Baseball managers only do so much coaching.  A baseball manager can pinch run a guy, bring in a new pitcher or defensive substitution, but he rarely, if ever, calls plays, orchestrates elaborate packages, or specifically trains his players.  In many ways the sport is an individual sport.  Yes, it is the team that wins or loses, but each at-bat is one batter versus one pitcher, while in other sports it is 5-on-5 or 11-on-11.  The manager simply puts his players in a position to perform and they either do or don’t.  So much of what occurs in baseball occurs due to the individual actions of the players.  Therefore, I hold football, basketball, and hockey coaches to a higher stander when it comes to team failure.

I believe Francona institutes the right attitude in the clubhouse and, for the most part, plays the guys he has to play.  There is little he can do when Crawford or Pedroia or Gonzalez slumps.  He has to stick with the guys given to him by upper management.  It’s true that Francona has some of the best guys available in the sport, and some would say he’s under-achieved (record-wise) during the regular season, but he’s been dealing with injuries, streaky players, and season-long slumps, and there is little he can do.  I, as most of you do, sometimes question his in-game decisions – pinch-running for a player or sending a specific reliever to the mound, keeping Bard in one pitch too many – but most of those end up being 20/20 hindsight calls.  In real-game time, his options are limited.  In the hours since the conclusion of the collapse, Francona has admitted to his mistakes – batting order, pitching choices, etc. – but I still don’t entirely hold it against him.  Who else was he supposed to pitch in the 8th and 9th innings?  Who else was supposed to start?  Who else was supposed to play LF?  When it comes down to it, he had the guys he had in the dugout, and those guys weren’t performing.  That failure cannot be held against him.

From what’s been reported in the days since they played their final game of the season, it certainly seems like Francona tried time and again to get this team to gel and play good baseball, yet the team never responded, and that proverbial leader never stepped forward.  It’s interesting after all of our discussion on this site [Overthemonster.com] about leadership (or the lack thereof) on this team, it has become the focal point for all sportswriters and commentators when discussing the failures of this year’s team.  Curt Schilling had perhaps the most direct comments on this topic in a radio interview given on 9/30 – http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/14744/schill-lack-of-player-discipline-not-on-tito.  Here’s a quote from Francona (9/29): “I’m not sure if anybody knew, because there were some things I was worried about. I think we were spending too much energy on things that weren’t putting our best foot forward toward winning. We spent a few minutes in the clubhouse that day (9/6), talking about that. There were some things that did concern me. Teams normally, as the season progresses, there are events that make you care about each other, and this club, it didn’t always happen as much as I wanted it to. And I was frustrated by that.”  Jackie MacMullan wrote a great article about all this on 9/30 – http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/7036983/underachieving-boston-red-sox-flunked-chemistry.  I am very perturbed by the stories leaking out over the past few days regarding players’ constant complaining and the (unconfirmed) drinking of alcohol in the clubhouse [http://www.overthemonster.com/2011/9/30/2459465/francona-to-leave-the-red-sox].  If any of these stories are true, then something must be done (a full management sit-down with the entire roster of players), but I’ll give Francona the benefit of the doubt and another season to see what he can do with this club.  Many will disagree with me, stating that a lost clubhouse is the manager’s fault.  I can understand their viewpoint.  However, Francona’s job this season was obviously much more difficult than many of us ever knew.  To me, it sounds like the team let Francona down, not the other way around.

Here are a few reasons to keep Francona:

- He’s won 743 games with the Sox, at a .575 percentage, which would put him at 16th all-time for managerial winning percentage (his Phillies days actually drag down his career percentage).

- Eight seasons coached, only three of which fell below the 95-win threshold.  In the AL East, that’s impressive.  95 wins won’t always get you the division crown, in fact it rarely will, but it’s a necessary plateau.

- He’s managed players with personalities as disparate as Manny Ramirez, Curt Schilling, Johnny Damon, Dustin Pedroia, JD Drew, David Ortiz, Jonathan Papelbon, John Lackey, and Dice-K.  Not many managers deal with as many highly-talented and bizarrely-unique players.  To keep winning despite their differences is impressive.

- The two World Series championships came with completely different pitching staffs – a rare feat for a modern-day manager.  From Pedro, Schilling, Arroyo, Wake, Lowe, and Foulke to Beckett, Dice-K, Lester, Wake, Schilling, and Papelbon.  The man knows how to handle a pitching staff when he’s given players to work with… Let me repeat, when he’s given the players to work with.

- The team’s epic collapse this year was surreal, and little can be done in the face of the surreal.  The collapse was not the failure of the manager.  There are 25 guys in that clubhouse who have to look at themselves in the mirror and say, “I have to do better.”

- Lastly, and this can be considered most-important or least-important, he’s managed the Sox to two pennants and two World Series during his eight years in Boston.  No decision should be made based entirely on history, but the two World Series in eight years means something.

After writing all of this, I can still understand why the organization and Francona parted ways.  After what came out about the clubhouse relations it is nearly impossible to keep him on.  The players, and it seems to be mostly the newer guys (and possibly Ortiz), caused a lot of problems that Francona had no solution for.  Everything sort of collapsed around him, and he found himself a lone man struggling against the unforgiving tide of change.  A parting of ways may be the best outcome for all parties involved.

Yet, now that they changed managers, it will be a “changing of the guard”-type moment for the Sox.  The only manager in the past 93 years to bring two World Series to town has been shown the exit door.  Some may believe that Francona lost the respect or ears of his players, but that’s an unknown for anyone not within the clubhouse.  As Curt Schilling said in that same radio interview on 9/30: “I would argue that with this group of players, with this group of players in this market, that Terry Francona is one of the few guys that can manage this team. If you’re going to get rid of him I think you have to blow it all up.” [This sentiment affects a few of my decisions below.]  I agree with Schilling.  I don’t know how this team moves forward without Francona unless everything is blown up.

Due to Francona’s departure, the Sox now need a manager to not only pick up the pieces of this broken season, but also handle the numerous personalities on this club (of whomever remains).  I absolutely do not believe the next manager will come from within the organization, as the player discord that stained Francona also stained his entire staff.  I’d be surprised if any of the coaches are brought back.  I also do not believe that Joe Torre is a candidate in-the-running.  He currently works in the League Office and it seems almost unfathomable that he would man the Sox bench for even a game; it was odd enough seeing him as the Dodgers coach.  Since the Sox can afford anyone (even the magnificent Carl Crawford), any coach is in play, even those currently with other teams (as deals can always be brokered; e.g. Ozzie Guillen to the Marlins).

My Top-11 Managerial Candidates (who I’d go after and the likelihood the Sox sign them):

1. Joe Maddon – No, I’m not kidding.  He’d be perfect.  Unorthodox.  Always optimistic.  Gets amazing results from lesser players.  He’s probably not looking to leave, but it would be a major coup by the Sox to steal this guy somehow.  He’s signed through the end of next season.  Likelihood: 5%.

2. Ron Gardenhire – Up until the debacle of this season, he has kept the Twins in every playoff race for the past ten years, often beating up on teams with larger payrolls and more all-stars.  His career record is over .500 and I think he’d be a good fit for Boston.  He’s currently signed through 2013, but with the mess the Twins are currently in, with all their injuries, they may be willing to let him go in hopes of rebuilding with a new skipper.  Likelihood: 35%.

3. Kirk Gibson – One surprising season does not make a great manager, but what he did this year with the Diamondbacks does show his potential as a game-changing manager.  Once again, he gets everything out of his players.  He’s probably not looking to leave, however, as he has the chance to build something nice around a young core.  He’s signed through the end of next season, with a club option for 2013.  Likelihood: 15%.

4. Cito Gaston – Currently retired, he spent his entire career managing in the AL East, winning two World Series with the Blue Jays.  He’s a respected veteran able to handle big personalities.  Likelihood: 25%.

5. Mike Scioscia – He’s a good manager, but it’s not as if he does a lot with a little.  The Angels’ 2011 payroll was $140+ million, only $20 million less than the Sox.  He’d probably work well for the Sox, and is a great “player’s manager,” like Francona.  He’s signed through 2018, with an opt-out after 2015.  Likelihood: 10%.

6. Clint Hurdle – Currently manning the Pirates’ ever-sinking ship, it’d be a god-send for him for the Sox to come calling.  He’s a veteran manager with a below-.500 record, but that’s the exact manager Francona was when the club came calling back in 2004.  He’s signed through 2013, but come on, this is the Pirates and the Sox could have their manager for a crate of Schlitz.  Likelihood: 25%.

7. Eric Wedge – He did alright with the Indians, but not that well with the Mariners this season.  He actually played a few Major League games with the Sox way back when, so there’s a connection, though miniscule.  He’s a hard-nosed guy, and that’s one direction the Sox could go.  Likelihood: 25%.

8. Willie Randolph – Currently the bench coach for those damn Baltimore Orioles.  He’s used to the pressure of coaching in a big-time sports city and he doesn’t seem to be the kind of guy to take crap for his players.  Likelihood: 25%.

9. Dave Sveum – Former Ass’t Coach on the Sox, and a part-time Manager of the Brewers, maybe he’d be a guy they bring in for a shot.  Likelihood: 15%.

10. Dave Martinez – Currently bench coach for the Rays, he’s due a shot at a head coaching gig.  I don’t think the Sox will be the team to give him that chance, but his hat will be in the ring.  Likelihood: 5%.

11. Bobby Valentine – He’s certainly an off-the-wall choice, and the media’s darling when it comes to every big-time managerial opening.  I’m not sure the Sox would go down this road, but there are worse choices than Bobby V.  Likelihood: 15%.

In the end, I have no idea who they’ll select, and if Theo will even be around for the press conference.  It’s all a crap-shoot right now.

TEAM:

It’s the team that failed in September 2011.  Individuals faltered and failed at their respective jobs, but it is the team that is held responsible.  You win as a team and lose as a team.  So, with that clearly being my belief, in which direction do I see this team going?  Are they a World Series contender or are they a poorly-constructed albatross around the neck of this city?  They certainly have enough individual talent to win the AL East and contend for a World Series, but they need a catalyzing event to set them on their path together.  A wandering group of talented strangers will not succeed.  A team will.

PROJECTED 25-MAN ROSTER:

Definites: These guys are signed for next season and I don’t believe they’ll be cut or traded.

- Adrian Gonzalez – He’ll be at first base through 2018.

- Dustin Pedroia – Staple at second base.

- Marco Scutaro – The team has a club option on him, which I think they’ll pick up, so I’m placing him here.  Lowrie isn’t ready for a full season and there is no point in bringing in a new SS, considering Lowrie and Iglesias are in the system.  I like Scutaro quite a bit.

- Kevin Youkilis – Plagued by injuries, he’s still the starting third baseman when healthy.

- Carl Crawford – He’ll turn it around.  I have full faith in him not being as god-awful as he was this season.  Even if he doesn’t turn it around, he’s impossible to trade with that contract.

- Jon Lester – The #1 starter.

- Josh Beckett – The #2 starter.

- Clay Buchholz – The #3 starter.  And let’s hope his back holds up.

- John Lackey – There’s no getting rid of his contract.  If the team signs another good starter, then perhaps he starts the year in the ‘pen.  For now, he’s a starter.

- Bobby Jenks – He won’t last the season, but he’ll be on the club come April.

- Dan Wheeler – The club has a $3 million option to retain him, and though I find that to be over-paying for his services, the only other option seems to be to over-pay for someone else’s services, so I think they’ll bring him back.  Hopefully, he stays healthy next year.

Arbitration: These guys are arbitration-eligible and I believe they’ll be kept through either arbitration or a contract extension.

- Jacoby Ellsbury – This is an absolute MUST.  Bring this man back and hope that even in a post-contract year he puts up numbers that are 80% of what he did this season.

- Daniel Bard – The club will keep him.  Keep grooming the guy for the closer’s role.  I’m interested to see how he bounces back from his disastrous late-season swoon.  Pitchers can be mentally fragile, but something tells me Bard has it in him to bounce back in a masterful way.

- Alfredo Aceves – Here’s the man!  Re-sign him to a 2-or-3-year deal at all costs.  He almost single-handedly carried the pitching corps into the post-season.

- Jarrod Saltalamacchia – Bring him back and throw him behind the plate for 110-120 games.  But, please get the man a bigger glove with which to catch the knuckleball.  I think he should get at least a 2-year deal.

- Franklin Morales – Bring him back for another year.  He’ll probably make the club coming out of spring training.  If not, stash him in AAA until they need him.

- Josh Reddick – Bring him back as the opening day platoon starter in RF.

- Mike Aviles – Re-sign him to a 1-or-2-year deal and platoon him throughout the infield.

Inside Free Agents: These guys are free agents and I believe the Sox will re-sign them.

- David Ortiz – They must re-sign him.  A two-year deal would be more than fair.  He’s still the best DH in baseball.  Anyone else would be a step down.  *I was much more confident about this prior to Francona getting the ax.  A full-on house-cleaning may be coming, in which case Ortiz is gone.

- Jonathan Papelbon – You think the Sox are ready to hand over the closer’s role to Bard after the display he put on in September?  I think not.  And, bringing in an outside guy is hit-or-miss.  Stick with Pap.  *I was much more confident about this prior to Francona getting the ax.  A full-on house-cleaning may be coming, in which case Paps is gone.

- Jason Varitek – Here’s my hope for the Cap: He re-signs with the team as Josh Beckett’s personal catcher, while also taking on Ass’t Coach duties of some kind.  He’ll make a capable manager some day, but can still be used once every five days to catch Beckett while learning his future trade in the dugout.  He keeps the Captain’s Badge, but an everyday player is named as Co-Captain (probably Pedroia).  *I was much more confident about this prior to Francona getting the ax.  A full-on house-cleaning may be coming, in which case Tek is gone.

- Tim Wakefield – One more year…  Bring him back.  He’s still an innings-eater and not a season has gone by in the past 17 where the Sox didn’t need to rely on him eating some innings.  But will a new manager be as faithful to him as Francona was?

- Erik Bedard – I’m a big ‘Yes’ for bringing Bedard back on a 2-year deal.  He won’t be healthy for a full season (I guarantee that), but he’ll have 18-22 solid outings.

Outside Free Agents: These are the free agents I believe the Sox will sign.  And here’s where everything I write can be taken with a huge grain of salt.  Nothing is certain and these are all hypothetical.

- Michael Cuddyer / Josh Willingham / Cody Ross – A right-hitting RF is needed to platoon with either Reddick or Kalish.  These are all guys who could accept a two-year deal to come start opening day with the Sox.

- Hiroki Kuroda / Jon Garland / Brandon Webb / Livan Hernandez – A sixth starting pitcher is certainly needed after what we all witnessed this season.  There aren’t any truly game-changing pitchers available who aren’t tied to a club option.  Do the Sox really want to overpay for another 30-year-old pitcher, or do they want to stockpile young arms in their system and hope a few pan out?  I see them signing either a veteran pitcher coming off a solid year or a guy recovering from injury who may be able to contribute more than expected.  Either way, I see them going after a right-handed pitcher, as I have them keeping Lester and Bedard in the rotation.

Call-Ups: These are guys in the system who should be called up to make the 25-man squad in April.

Unfortunately, there is NO ONE in the system who should start the year with the team.  Some guys may have the talent (Kalish, Iglesias, Weiland), but they need more time in the minors to either work themselves back post-injury or gain additional experience.  Those are two things they will not be able to do while sitting on the bench in Fenway.

AAA: These guys will start the year in AAA (or lower), but are possible call-ups during the season.  Some are free agents, some are signed.  I think the Sox keep them all within the organization.

- Ryan Lavarnway – He’s not ready to catch 60-70 games in the Majors next season, and he’ll need the additional grooming and at-bats that he can only get in AAA.  Sitting on the bench in the Majors won’t help him.  But he’ll probably be up come July or August.

- Scott Atchison – I was going to treat him how I treated Franklin Morales, but I ran out of roster spots because another starting pitcher needed to be signed.  Bring him up when he’s needed.

- Andrew Miller – Bring him back on his club option and stick him in AAA until they have room for him to come up in the ‘pen.  He can continue to work on his mechanics.

- Kyle Weiland – Needs to re-work his pitches and re-gain his confidence.  He’ll be a bullpen call-up at some time during the summer.

- Jose Iglesias – Still not-yet-ready-for-primetime.  He’ll be called up again late in the season for additional Major League grooming.

- Joey Gathright – I know he’s 30 years-old, but the Sox need to fill out their system and he’s a fine pinch-running call-up for September.

- Michael Bowden – Work on the delivery and getting some movement on the fastball, then maybe call him back up.

- Felix Doubront – Let him start in AAA and see how he does for a few months.  Maybe call him up as a spot starter next summer.

- Ryan Kalish – Let him get his feet back under him in AAA before throwing him into the fire.  If he out-performs Reddick during the season, then switch their roles and bring Kalish up as the platoon guy in RF.

- Luis Exposito – Keep grooming him as trade bait or the eventual starting catcher.

- Stolmy Pimentel – Keep grooming.

- Oscar Tejada – Keep grooming.

Bye-Bye: These are the guys currently on the team that I believe will be gone by next Spring.

- J.D. Drew – Sad, in some ways, that his time as a Sox has ended in such ignominious fashion.  He should hang up his cleats, but I’m certain he’ll catch on as a pinch hitter somewhere in baseball, at least to begin next season.

- Dice-K – They cut their losses and either have him recover from his injury all of next season, or waive him and let him return home to Japan.  He will not end up with another team.  He’s damaged goods.  But I bet you he heads back to Japan and pitches masterfully for a few more seasons.

- Conor Jackson – He wouldn’t be a horrible guy to bring back, but I think he’ll want more money than the Sox offer, and they need someone better to platoon in RF.  He made $3+ million this past season.

- Trever Miller – Many of you are probably scratching your heads right now, but this man did suit up for a few games this season.  He won’t suit up next season.

- Junichi Tazawa – Another Japanese-import experiment gone wrong.  He’ll be brought back for spring training, but I don’t see him making the squad.

- Matt Albers – Sorry, but the team should go younger here (Albers will be 29 years-old).  There must be a 22/23-year-old that can give the club what Albers gave them this season (a 4.73 ERA and 31 walks), while also having room to grow and get better.

- Rich Hill – Who?

- Darnell McDonald – Bye, Darnell.  Bye.

- Jed Lowrie – Here’s one of the toughest calls on the team.  It’s all based on his arbitration cost and what they get if they give him up.  I desperately wanted Lowrie to become an everyday player, but I think he’s proven that he’s not durable enough and perhaps not talented enough to ever earn a full-time position.  If the team can pick up some draft picks by letting him walk, then do it.  He was almost in direct competition with Mike Aviles, and I went with Aviles.

- Hideki Okajima – I like the guy, but I think his time has passed.

- Dennys Reyes – Never really had a chance, but probably wasn’t going to show much anyhow.  And who names their kid after a fast-food restaurant?

PROJECTED LINEUP:

- Jacoby Ellsbury

- Dustin Pedroia

- Adrian Gonzalez

- Kevin Youkilis

- David Ortiz

- (right-hitting RF)

- Carl Crawford

- Jarrod Saltalamacchia

- Marco Scutaro

- Josh Reddick

- Mike Aviles

- Jason Varitek

PROJECTED STAFF/BULLPEN:

- Jon Lester

- Josh Beckett

- Clay Buchholz

- Erik Bedard

- John Lackey

- A right-handed sixth starter

- Tim Wakefield

- Jonathan Papelbon

- Daniel Bard

- Alfredo Aceves

- Bobby Jenks

- Dan Wheeler

- Franklin Morales

2012 OUTLOOK:

We’re likely to see neither a season’s worth of the superb .700 ball from the summer of 2011 nor the abysmal .200 ball of the opening week/final month of 2011.  100 wins?  No.  But this looks like a team that can win the World Series…  If everything falls into place health-wise and they play as a team.  I project 96 wins and a wild card berth in the 2012 Playoffs.

Please share your thoughts and/or reactions.