A brand-new season begins tomorrow, October 26th. Over the summer I came to terms with the way last season ended – the 4-point loss to the Lakers in Game 7 of the NBA Finals. The Celtics far exceeded our expectations for them by going so deep into the playoffs and pushing the Lakers to within a few minutes of Championship 18. I fully believe that if Perk had not been injured, the 18th Banner would now be hanging in the Garden. I wrote about it here – http://www.edwardkasche.com/soitgoes/2010/06/one-win-shy/. Alas, it was not meant to be, which brings us to this new season.
The team is back in-full (well, Tony Allen ran off), with a few new veterans in tow, and there is serious reason to be optimistic about both our depth and our health. Doc returns to man the sidelines, and though Thibodeau left to coach the Bulls, Lawrence Frank joined the staff as the 2nd-in-command. The organization is solid from ownership down through the bench. It’s a long season and there will be twists and turns, but there is reason to be optimistic.
Here’s my take on this year’s team:
Starting 5 – Rondo / Jesus Shuttlesworth / The Truth / K.G. / Shaq – J.O. (Perk)
Rondo is the leader and, in many ways, the team will go as far as he can lead them. He is not the best PG in the game, as he has natural deficiencies in his game that have yet to be overcome (outside shooting, free throw shooting), but he is the perfect PG for this team, as his youth and strengths reinforce his teammates and his weaknesses can be hidden in the Celtics’ system. I’m envisioning many drives into the lane that result in alley-oops for Shaq and K.G. If Rondo grabs hold of the mantle of Leader this season then this team will be phenomenally better than if he reverts to fourth banana. Game 7 of the NBA Finals last season needed a lot more of Rondo as Leader – he could have and should have dominated the final eight minutes of that game. Let’s hope he’s ready this season. The future of the team belongs to Rondo. It begins now.
I am excited that this team stuck together for a few more years, and it fully seems that Pierce, Allen, and Garnett plan on retiring in Celtic Green. That’s a beautiful thought and should make us fans happy. They’re older, yes. Slower, perhaps. Prone to injury, who knows. They’re also teammates, and each player sacrifices what is necessary for the good of the team. It is an honor to watch them play together and you’ll be wont to find a better triumvirate on any team. Health is the only concern, as heart is there in spades.
If I was coach (a dangerous thought, indeed), the starting center would be dependent on the opposition. Shaq and J.O. bring different traits and bodies to the court and each can be highly effective when properly used – the pick-and-roll will not be a constant problem, as the remaining Celtics are all pesky and intelligent enough to make up for Shaq’s shortcoming. If we’re manning up on Dwight Howard or Andrew Bogut, then Shaq starts the game and plays his minutes against the starters. J.O. comes on to clean up against the likes of Gortat and Ilyasova. When we’re facing smaller teams whose starting centers are 6’11”, and back-ups even smaller, J.O. should start and Shaq should go to town on those 6’9” centers coming off the bench. Just think, Glen Davis used to come in against those guys; now add 4 inches and 40 pounds and imagine the damage Shaq can do while our starters rest. This is, of course, until Perk returns healthy, at which point he immediately resumes his role as the cog in the middle, and Shaq and J.O. become back-ups used to physically intimidate back-up centers across the league.
The Boston Bench Mob – West / Nate / Daniels / Glen Davis / J.O. – Shaq
As the season progresses I fully intend to see this unit jell, with the centers switching out depending on the opposition. West, Nate, Daniels, and Davis should spend the entire season learning the intricacies of each others’ games as if they were a starting unit. In many ways, this bench unit is a decent starting unit – I can easily imagine this being the Knicks’ starting unit, though each would have to paid nine times what they’re being paid to man Boston’s bench. If this unit learns to play together, and injuries to the starters don’t affect the rotation, I am confident that this group can succeed against any other bench in the league, including the hyped-up Lakers bench. Look for alternating break-out games from Nate and Davis, with West and Daniels being the glue that holds the group together.
The Subs’ Subs – Bradley / Wafer / Harangody / Erden
They might not see many minutes this season, and they may spend time in the D-League up in Maine, but I like our subs’ subs. Bradley and Harangody have promise, Erden is tall, and Wafer, if sane, can be a sparkplug in case of injury or an under-performing bench. All in all, the talent at the far end of our bench shows how strong and deep this year’s team is.
Coaches – Doc / Frank / Hill / Eastman / Longabardi
Almost as importance as the players on the court are the coaches on the bench. The Celtics are a volatile team with energetic personalities, and it is up to the men in suits to keep everything in line. I’m sure there will be stretches where injuries, or even suspensions, are a concern and the coaching staff will have to work through all issues that affect this team on and off the court. It probably won’t be pretty at all times, but I trust no one more than Doc to lead this group to Banner 18.
Everyone knows the Celtics are built for the post-season, so it will be difficult to stay focused as a die-hard fan throughout the year. There will be highs and lows, tough losses and hard-fought victories, small injuries and, hopefully, no season-ending injuries. There will be doubts and there will be hope. Come next June, the Celtics will hopefully be where they want to be, where we the fans want them to be – back in the NBA Finals, fighting for their 18th Banner.
Thoughts on other Teams:
Lakers – Just as the Celtics, they’re another year older and have, theoretically, deepened their bench. Prognosticators believe that Gasol will be even better and Artest will be freed up by winning a title last season, and that the addition of Matt Barnes will strengthen the second unit. Possibly. However, Gasol is another year older and will have to shoulder more weight from an aging Bryant, while Artest could just as easily regress with less focus, and Barnes’ attitude could go a long way toward destroying a cohesive second unit. Without our starting center and defensive anchor we took this team to within four points of the Championship, so I say, “Bring on the Lakers!” I’d love to ruin their three-peat while grabbing Banner 18.
Heat – The key is Wade’s health. He has dealt with injuries in the past (and a creeping hamstring injury this month) and if he misses a season or half-season the Heat will become the Miami Cavs – i.e. James with a team of scrubs. Bosh is entirely overrated, having put up all of his numbers on an awful Raptors team, taking 15 -20 shots per game. If Wade goes down, how is the duo of James and Bosh any better than James and Boozer, James and Gooden, or James and Jamison? James needs Wade to win in Miami. We’ll see how that goes over with James as the season progresses. And speaking of shots per game, prognosticators write as if Wade, James, and Bosh will continue to put up past numbers, forgetting that everyone’s shot attempts will drastically dip. You simply cannot sustain 18-20 shots per game for each of your three stars. The dip in shot attempts predicts a change in dynamics and a shift in egos. How will players cope with less shots, how will their in-game rhythms be affected by less touches and less shots, and how will their attitudes coalesce? Chemistry is very difficult to predict.
Magic – This is basically the exact same team from the past three seasons. They are dangerous and I’d rather avoid them in the playoffs (for fear of a wild Howard elbow killing a Celtic), but the Celtics have handled them in the past and there is no reason to believe that a healthy Celtics team cannot do the same this year. Howard is not Hakeem the Dream!
Thunder – I seriously hope they’ve grown enough as a team to challenge the Lakers, because I see them as the only true speed bump in the Lakers drive to a third straight Finals appearance. Forget the older Spurs and Mavs, and let’s not throw our hopes behind the Jazz or Trailblazers until they prove their worth on the court. The Thunder have the youth, drive, and budding superstar to challenge the Lakers, but we must see if they have the defensive intensity and championship desire.
Celtics Regular Season Prediction:
At best, 58-24, 2nd in the East.
At worst, 49-33, 4th in the East.
Finals:
Celtics over Lakers in 7 games (in L.A.)
Come season’s end, I expect the Celtics to be raising their 18th Championship Banner.