Labor Day has arrived, and with that I am recapping the 2010 Summer Box Office through the prism of my 2010 Summer Box Office Predictions, which I submitted into a contest on www.comingsoon.net.
The theatrical releases on this list were released during the summer movie season, between May 1st and September 1st. Originally, I forgot that August was a summer month, so I did not include any August releases in my predictions.
Let’s begin with my original list of predictions and see how I did.
My original predictions are written in normal black type.
In blue I give you the following: the release’s actual summer box office total and finishing position amongst only this year’s summer releases, and my thoughts on why I was so horribly inefficient.
(The dollar amounts are in millions and account only for domestic gross as of 9/1/10.)
1. Iron Man 2 – $425
- Nothing else of its magnitude arrives this summer…a sequel to a high-grossing comic book movie from two summers ago! Think The Dark Knight, Spider-Man 2, and even Dead Man’s Chest. It can’t not make money, and it doesn’t have much competition in its first few weeks. However, it won’t be ground-breaking, so repeat business will drop off, unlike The Dark Knight.
- $312 (2nd)
- I overestimated the success of the first movie and the desire of fans to see another. Perhaps the popularity of comic book adaptations is falling off, even with dozens more movies in the works. More likely, fans realized that Iron Man is kind of boring and doesn’t have any superstar villains. Or maybe people missed Terrence Howard.
2. Toy Story 3 – $410
- The family-friendliest film of the summer…and also a sequel, which never hurts…and it’s Pixar…and it will rake in additional $ from being shown in 3-D and IMAX (more expensive tickets!).
- $406 (1st)
- I was very, very close with this one. It ended up being the highest-grossing film of 2010, and 3-D ticket sales did make up a healthy amount of its total. My review: http://www.edwardkasche.com/soitgoes/2010/07/toy-story-1995-toy-story-2-1999-toy-story-3-2010/
3. Sorcerer’s Apprentice – $315
- I’m going out on a limb with this one. There’s always a live-action, family-friendly movie that rakes in big summer bucks, and I’m betting on this movie as opposed to Prince of Persia because of the track record of director Jon Turtletaub and star Nicolas Cage (they made the box office hits National Treasure and National Treasure 2). Also, it looks more family-friendly than Prince of Persia, and Cage is a bigger star than Gyllenhaal.
- $61 (20th)
- Um, I was drunk at the time? I was waaaaaaaaaaay off with this choice. I was always hesitant to say it would make that much money, but I honestly thought it would finish in the Top-5. Oh, and that live-action, family-friendly movie I swore would make big summer bucks was… Inception! Just kidding, it was The Karate Kid.
4. Shrek Forever After – $300
- Against my better judgment, I feel this series is still popular. It won’t gross as much (in adjusted dollars) as the first three Shreks (or be as funny!), but it will make $ during a rather tepid summer. Families will pay for this while they await Toy Story 3.
- $238 (5th)
- I overestimated its earnings, but I was close on where it would land. Seemingly, this ogre cannot be destroyed, only marginalized.
5. Twilight: Eclipse* – $285
- Ugh. It’s bound to make some $ considering stars Pattison and Stewart are still in the tabloids and the second movie came out just last Fall. However, I believe this is the end for this series being a box office success story. Twilight fans have aged, the actors are moving on, and the series doesn’t have the cross-generational appeal, dramatic arc, or talented cast of the Harry Potter series.
- $298 (3rd)
- Ugh. It made more than I estimated and finished higher. Fortunately, I won my Teen Choice Award pool by selecting this movie for 12 shiny surfboards. Right on!
*Showing my age, I originally incorrectly referred to this movie as New Moon, when it is obviously supposed to be titled Eclipse. The Heavens weep due to my insolence.
They only asked for the Top-5, but I rounded out my Top-10 with…
6. Prince of Persia – $235 – By default.
- $91 (14th – soon to be 15th)
- It surpassed Sorcerer’s Apprentice but failed to break $100 million, revealing two interesting facts – sword-wielding Muslims are more popular than wand-wielding sorcerers and Jake Gyllenhaal desperately needs Bubble Boy 2 to happen.
7. Grown Ups – $215 – Sandler + James = Box Office (surprising, after I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry).
- $160 (8th)
- I was going to make a mathematical joke about the declining box office numbers for these two stars since I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry in 2007, but my plans were foiled because Grown Ups out-grossed its predecessor by more than $40 million.
8. Inception – $180 – DiCaprio and a phenomenal cast in director Christopher Nolan’s first film since The Dark Knight. It’s thought-provoking and mature, however, which will force certain audience members to avoid it and see Predators instead. Due to that, I don’t see it will breaking into the top-5.
- $271 (4th)
- I vastly underestimated this film and its excited fan base. Original ideas can be profitable in Hollywood, as long as they come on the heels of a billion dollar comic book film (The Dark Knight). My review: http://www.edwardkasche.com/soitgoes/2010/07/inception-2010/
9. Knight and Day – $170 – Cruise and Diaz are good for at least $170 domestic at the box office, right?
- $76 (17th)
- Wrong! Hahahahahahahaha. I must have undervalued… and forgotten about… Hahahahahahahahahaha. Tom Cruise, you may leave at any time.
10. Despicable Me – $160 – A breakthrough along the lines of How to Train Your Dragon. It may lure adults in with the voice work of Steve Carell.
- $237 (6th)
- Amazingly, this movie earned almost the exact difference I estimated in its gross as compared to Shrek Forever After, which I overestimated by $63 million. This proves irrefutably that there is balance in the universe.
These releases did not make my original Top-10 (by choice):
The Karate Kid
- $176 (7th)
- How many times exactly did Will Smith pay to see this movie? There is no way it should have earned this much money. At least the discussion of ‘Who is Hollywood’s next Will Smith?’ is settled. We’ll have to get used to hearing this kid’s agamous name for the next 60 years.
The Last Airbender
- $131 (9th)
- Even in failure, Shyamalan’s a success. This movie was universally-panned and labeled a failure, yet it earned a healthy amount. Oh, wait, its budget was $150 in addition to marketing costs. Forget it, it’s a failure!
Robin Hood
- $105 (11th – soon to be 12th)
- It seems like Robin Hood stole the excitement from his own film. Nothing about this film’s advertising campaign appealed to me, especially Russell Crowe bashing Kevin Costner’s awesome box office success, Robin Hood: Prince of Thieves. Costner, 1. Crowe, 0.
Sex and the City 2
- $95 (13th)
- Only $50 million less than the first movie. That’s not enough in my opinion. There should have been a $400 million drop off. We’re in a recession, people!
The A-Team
- $77 (16th)
- I was right to write this movie off as Netflixable.
Predators
- $52 (23rd)
- Yeah, this seems right. Not too much, not too little. Finishes right inside the Top-25.
These releases did not make my original Top-10 (because I forgot August was a summer month and these were all released in August):
Salt
- $114 (10th)
- How could I overlook the box office power of Philip Noyce?!?!? Oh, wait, Angelina Jolie was in this thing? Now I get it.
The Other Guys
- $100 (12 – soon to be 11th)
- Somehow Will Ferrell’s idiotic movies still make money. Yet, he’s never had a movie gross as much as Adam Sandler’s idiotic movies. Does that make Sandler more or less of an idiot?
The Expendables
- $83 (15th – soon to be 14th)
- Even if I had considered August releases in my initial predictions, I don’t believe I would have included this one in the Top-10. As it happens, it finished 15th (soon to be 14th), which is still higher than I expected. I love Stallone, but I did not have high hopes for high box office, and as it ends up, I was disappointed with the movie too. My review: http://www.edwardkasche.com/soitgoes/2010/08/the-expendables-2010/
Dinner for Schmucks
- $69 (18th – soon to be 19th)
- I probably would have had it higher up my list if I remembered to include August movies, still, this seems like a disappointing box office haul after some of Carell’s and Rudd’s recent successes.
Eat, Pray, Love
- $61 (19th – soon to be 18th)
- Julia Roberts ain’t what she used to be, ain’t what she used to be, ain’t what she used to be.
Get Him to the Greek
- $61 (21st)
- Blah. What tripe.
Letters to Juliet
- $53 (22nd)
- I don’t know what this is, and therefore I didn’t think to include it on my list. It’s interesting that besides the awful nonsense that is Twilight and Julia Roberts, this is the only maudlin, girl-driven romantic dramedy that made the Top-25. It sure proves true The Bechdel Test – http://bechdeltest.com/.
Killers
- $46 (24th)
- This is that crap with Ashton Kutcher. I want the names of the 3.5 million people who paid $13 to see this, and I want them now. Their privilege to vote in the coming elections has been revoked!
Cats & Dogs: The Revenge of Kitty Galore
- $41 (25th)
- Whatever.
The Top-25 Summer Releases for 2010 (as of 9/1/10):
1. Toy Story 3
2. Iron Man 2
3. Twilight: Eclipse
4. Inception
5. Shrek Forever After
6. Despicable Me
7. The Karate Kid
8. Grown Ups
9. The Last Airbender
10. Salt
11. Robin Hood
12. The Other Guys
13. Sex and the City 2
14. Prince of Persia
15. The Expendables
16. The A-Team
17. Knight and Day
18. Dinner for Schmucks
19. Eat, Pray, Love
20. Sorcerer’s Apprentice
21. Get Him to the Greek
22. Letters to Juliet
23. Predators
24. Killers
25. Cats & Dogs: The Revenge of Kitty Galore
Wrap-Up:
All of the releases I predicted to finish in the Top-10 did eventually finish in the Top-25, so I take solace in not predicting a hit out of an absolute bomb (though Sorcerer’s Apprentice came close). I was also quite close with releases’ finishing positions, though I inflated most every release’s box office total. The biggest surprise for me is the success of The Karate Kid. I don’t know how Will Smith pulled that off. I’m led to believe that many theater-goers bought tickets thinking Will Smith was in it. The biggest disappointment was the disturbingly low grosses for both Jerry Bruckheimer-produced summer tent poles (Sorcerer’s Apprentice and Prince of Persia). I guess it’s only disturbing if you believe those movies should make money. Many folks probably found it disturbing that other Bruckheimer productions earned so much money.
The overall box office was less concentrated than usual and realized stagnant growth, while theater attendance was its lowest since 1997. In my opinion, people stayed away from mediocre releases due to the $13 ticket, but Hollywood reaped the short-term rewards of charging $17 for tickets to good 3-D releases. The latter won’t last though, as 3-D attendance has dipped as the summer has progressed.
Looking forward to the Fall and Winter, there don’t seem to be many certified box office hits. Hollywood will no doubt be around for the foreseeable future, but they must begin to rectify the exorbitant ticket prices. I saw two films (Toy Story 3, Inception) and one movie (The Expendables) this summer – oddly, one per month, at a total of $39. Eight other movies ended up on my Netflix queue – in total, they’ll cost me under $18. I thoroughly love the theater-going experience, but most movies are not worth $13, and as long as the ticket prices stay high and I stay lower-middle-class, I won’t go. And as long as I don’t go you won’t get timely, Edward Kasche-certified reviews. So, please, write your local A-list star, studio chief, and theater chain owner and ask them to reconsider the malicious thievery that is occurring weekly at your local multiplex. Thank you.
[...] To compare this year’s predictions to last year’s, click 2010 Summer Box Office Recap. [...]